Public evidence record

MB4

0x755a0e86f6c5b9bc128cc4091b227a6915539748

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-9.6%557 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+4.3%$44,736 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.84%334 pre-event fills

Settlement record

233-305-6Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−32.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 557 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.4% to -1.9%

557 closed positions · 650 taker fills · $44,736 deployed

Typical position $94 (median) · closing line value measured over 334 pre-event fills · 8% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$95

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No

entry 92¢ · -1150now 95¢ · -1823+2.8 pts

Open

value$53

Josh Jacobs: 2+ Touchdowns

Yes

entry 19¢ · +425now 10¢ · +900−9.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

MMA230 closed91–130–5-6.9%
Football116 closed53–57–1-6.0%
Basketball108 closed58–48-1.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 91 sports · 9 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-04	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNon-sports	Yes	lost	2¢ · +6150	$10	—
2026-11-04	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNon-sports	No	lost	2¢ · +4445	$10	—
2026-11-04	Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 45.5football · totals	Under	lost	52¢ · -109	$197	−197
2026-11-04	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?