Public evidence record

MB4

0x755a0e86f6c5b9bc128cc4091b227a6915539748

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.9%487 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+5.6%$37,489 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.54%272 pre-event fills

Settlement record

215-257-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−17.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 487 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -15.9% to +0.0%

487 closed positions · 571 taker fills · $37,489 deployed

Typical position $76 (median) · closing line value measured over 272 pre-event fills · 7% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$6

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Yes

entry 0¢now 0¢−0.1 pts

Open

value$32

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Yes

entry 3¢ · +2930now 3¢ · +3471−0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

MMA192 closed83–101–4-4.3%
Basketball106 closed56–48-1.3%
Football98 closed50–45–1-4.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 92 sports · 8 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Combo: Joshua Van — UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) + Over — O/U 2.5 Rounds + Over — O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · combo	—	lost	13¢ · +660	$150	−150
2026-09-20	Combo: Over — O/U 1.5 Rounds + Tai Tuivasa — UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)mma · combo	—	lost	4¢ · +2684	$50	−50
2026-09-20	Combo: Joshua Van — UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) + Charles Jourdain — UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) + JooSang Yoo — UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims) + Dooho Choi — UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) + Arman Tsarukyan — UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)mma · combo	—	lost