value$103
Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?
No
Open
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Public evidence record
0x7b842c1f82f598a654865d7a223cf2b52209a13e
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-6.2%1,931 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-0.6%$800,834 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
+0.41%170 pre-event fillsSettlement record
1368-227-5Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−5.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,931 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.8% to -4.6%
1,931 closed positions · 5,022 taker fills · $800,834 deployed
Typical position $101 (median) · closing line value measured over 170 pre-event fills · 14% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?
ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?
GitHub Git Operations critical incident by September 30, 2026?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 11 sports · 89 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on September 20?Non-sports | No | exited | 99¢ · -9900 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 20?Non-sports | No | won | 97¢ · -3222 | $202 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Utah vs. Avalanchehockey · moneyline | Avalanche | won | 99¢ · -8722 | $607 | +6 |
| 2026-09-21 | Hurricanes vs. Panthers |
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
| Panthers |
| won |
| 99¢ · -15692 |
| $501 |
| +3 |
| 2026-09-21 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 20?Non-sports | No | won | 96¢ · -2637 | $101 | +4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 20?Non-sports | No | won | 98¢ · -4679 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 20?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -18424 | $202 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 99¢ · -11011 | $10 | +0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Canucks vs. Krakenhockey · moneyline | Kraken | won | 98¢ · -5208 | $111 | +2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 19?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -27911 | $101 | +0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Blackhawks vs. Wildhockey · moneyline | Wild | won | 99¢ · -11706 | $1,180 | +10 |
| 2026-09-20 | Jets vs. Oilershockey · moneyline | Oilers | won | 100¢ · -34899 | $602 | +0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Stars vs. Blueshockey · moneyline | Stars | won | 96¢ · -2357 | $1,003 | +40 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 20, 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -20355 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 19, 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -20231 | $502 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -33233 | $1,001 | +3 |
| 2026-09-19 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangersbaseball · moneyline | Texas Rangers | won | 99¢ · -16567 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $3 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Muse be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $30 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 98¢ · -5891 | $602 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9345 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Muse be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | Yes | won | 77¢ · -329 | $107 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 95¢ · -1880 | $22 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | Yes | won | 94¢ · -1533 | $144 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | Yes | won | 94¢ · -1534 | $28 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 97¢ · -3005 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | T20 Series Japan vs Hong Kong: Japan vs Hong Kong, Chinasoccer · moneyline | Hong Kong, China | won | 73¢ · -270 | $1 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $24 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $24 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $24 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9138 | $24 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will New Orleans, LA face tornado risk on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $24 | +0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 17?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9268 | $88 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockiesbaseball · moneyline | San Diego Padres | won | 95¢ · -1941 | $101 | +5 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on September 17?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -99305 | $1,001 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?Non-sports | Yes | won | 95¢ · -1861 | $25 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on September 17?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on September 17?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -13803 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on September 17?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -13803 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Non-sports | No | won | 92¢ · -1188 | $116 | +10 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 16?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -10361 | $209 | +2 |
| 2026-09-17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Non-sports | Yes | won | 97¢ · -3489 | $506 | −19 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on September 16?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -66381 | $101 | +0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Maple Leafs vs. Canadienshockey · moneyline | Maple Leafs | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on September 16?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -69109 | $101 | +0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | won | 88¢ · -733 | $102 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will it rain in Chicago, IL on September 16?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -10033 | $111 | +1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 16?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -13543 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -14186 | $401 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | ChatGPT Outage by September 15, 2026?Non-sports | No | exited | 82¢ · -466 | $361 | +74 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Non-sports | No | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $10 | −10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Non-sports | No | lost | 60¢ · -149 | $10 | −10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on September 15?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -29432 | $401 | +1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will it rain in Seattle, WA on September 15?Non-sports | Yes | won | 98¢ · -4900 | $59 | +1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will Minneapolis, MN face tornado risk on September 15?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -6768 | $202 | +3 |
| 2026-09-15 | Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on September 15?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -24987 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Non-sports | No | exited | 7¢ · +1368 | $10 | −4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on September 14?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9008 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Michael Douglas attend the US Open Finals?Non-sports | No | won | 98¢ · -4999 | $51 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Kansas City, MO face tornado risk on September 13?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Nashville, TN face tornado risk on September 13?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on September 13?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-14 | Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on September 13?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-13 | Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -24900 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Non-sports | Yes | won | 96¢ · -2400 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-13 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September?Non-sports | Yes | won | 98¢ · -4611 | $202 | +4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Fort Worth, TX face tornado risk on September 12?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Houston, TX face tornado risk on September 12?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on September 12?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Non-sports | Yes | won | 85¢ · -546 | $102 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on September 12?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 95¢ · -1900 | $105 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 97¢ · -2907 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Austin, TX face tornado risk on September 12?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?Non-sports | No | won | 96¢ · -2251 | $269 | +11 |
| 2026-09-12 | Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Non-sports | No | won | 98¢ · -4895 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Oklahoma City, OK face tornado risk on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Denver, CO face tornado risk on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will San Antonio, TX face tornado risk on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Vinted be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -7509 | $202 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Vinted be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -19111 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -7972 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | Yes | won | 96¢ · -2659 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | Yes | won | 97¢ · -2900 | $304 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Columbus, OH face tornado risk on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9082 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $101 | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will ESPN Fantasy Sports & More be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -33627 | $101 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | Will it rain in Washington, DC on September 11?Non-sports | Yes | won | 84¢ · -525 | $1 | +0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will it rain in Miami, FL on September 11?Non-sports | Yes | won | 85¢ · -567 | $1 | +0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $29 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | Will Charlotte, NC face tornado risk on September 10?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -9384 | $565 | +6 |
| 2026-09-10 | Will Atlanta, GA face tornado risk on September 10?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -8193 | $202 | +2 |
| 2026-09-10 | Will Birmingham, AL face tornado risk on September 10?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -7615 | $40 | +0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Will Chicago, IL face tornado risk on September 10?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -8510 | $202 | +2 |
| 2026-09-10 | Will 7 Brew Coffee be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -33233 | $1 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 9?Non-sports | No | won | 98¢ · -3984 | $101 | +2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?Non-sports | Yes | won | 100¢ · -49900 | $555 | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | LAPTOP listed on Kraken within 30 days of TGE?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -10453 | $250 | +2 |
| 2026-09-09 | Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 87¢ · -691 | $214 | +29 |