Public evidence record

WrongManyTimes

0x8090ba84e74f8d2c4d1807ec4a21b942533f42c1

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.7%620 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+2.2%$137,426 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.28%773 pre-event fills

Settlement record

418-184-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−20.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 620 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.7% to +2.2%

620 closed positions · 1,187 taker fills · $137,426 deployed

Typical position $125 (median) · closing line value measured over 773 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

7 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$5325

Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Yes

entry 48¢ · +108now 71¢ · -245+22.9 pts

Open

value$136

Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +998now 7¢ · +1415−2.5 pts

Open

value$902

Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?

Yes

entry 57¢ · -131now 88¢ · -733+31.2 pts

Open

value$287

Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

Yes

entry 58¢ · -139

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis418 closed290–113–3-1.4%
Soccer176 closed114–59-6.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 93 sports · 7 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-19	Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	70¢ · -233	$303	—
2026-09-18	Combo: AS Monaco FC — Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) + US Sassuolo Calcio — Spread: AC Monza (-2.5) + Yes — Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18?soccer · combo	—	won	79¢ · -387	$416	+102
2026-09-17	Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dreambasketball · moneyline	Atlanta Dream	won	93¢ · -1329	$388	+28
2026-09-17