Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
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Public evidence record
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Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.
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Typical return
-0.6%264 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-1.7%$2,345,056 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-0.52%294 pre-event fillsSettlement record
159-104-1Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−21.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 264 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.1% to +7.9%
264 closed positions · 421 taker fills · $2,345,056 deployed
Typical position $3,112 (median) · closing line value measured over 294 pre-event fills · 3% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Jaguars vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline | Jaguars | won | 81¢ · -428 | $18,336 | +4,136 |
| 2026-11-04 | Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)basketball · spreads | Pacers | won | 52¢ · -108 | $9,736 | +8,548 |
| 2026-11-01 | Oilers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5hockey · totals | Under | won | 50¢ · +100 | $6,811 | +6,491 |
| 2026-11-01 | Raiders vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $11,369 |
| −11,369 |
| 2026-10-31 | SMU vs. Syracusefootball · moneyline | SMU | lost | 74¢ · -286 | $9,718 | −9,718 |
| 2026-10-31 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-31?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 32¢ · +212 | $1 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Bengals vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline | Bengals | won | 59¢ · -144 | $862 | +581 |
| 2026-10-11 | Browns vs. Jetsfootball · moneyline | Jets | won | 57¢ · -131 | $25,156 | +18,649 |
| 2026-10-11 | UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Brendan Allen | won | 52¢ · -107 | $8,613 | +7,622 |
| 2026-10-10 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | won | 68¢ · -215 | $3,047 | +1,346 |
| 2026-10-10 | North Dakota State vs. UNLV · Spread North Dakota State (-2.5)football · spreads | North Dakota State | lost | 52¢ · -110 | $24,330 | −24,330 |
| 2026-10-10 | Wild vs. Panthershockey · moneyline | Panthers | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $19,121 | −19,121 |
| 2026-10-10 | Canucks vs. Devilshockey · moneyline | Devils | won | 71¢ · -245 | $10 | +4 |
| 2026-10-10 | Indiana vs. Nebraskafootball · moneyline | Indiana | won | 75¢ · -305 | $40,522 | +12,886 |
| 2026-10-09 | Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)football · spreads | Cowboys | lost | 52¢ · -109 | $29,416 | −29,416 |
| 2026-10-08 | Buccaneers vs. Cowboysfootball · moneyline | Cowboys | lost | 81¢ · -426 | $64,478 | −64,478 |
| 2026-10-07 | New Mexico State vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5football · totals | Over | lost | 55¢ · -121 | $2,610 | −2,610 |
| 2026-10-07 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Soxbaseball · moneyline | Cleveland Guardians | won | 47¢ · +113 | $30,908 | +33,156 |
| 2026-10-07 | Dana White's Contender Series: Salhahuddin Everett vs. Ozzy Martin (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Salhahuddin Everett | won | 61¢ · -154 | $10,197 | +6,307 |
| 2026-10-06 | Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Alexander Chavez | lost | 52¢ · -107 | $4,792 | −4,792 |
| 2026-10-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 50¢ · -100 | $20,848 | +19,831 |
| 2026-10-04 | Chargers vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | won | 76¢ · -317 | $33,721 | +10,649 |
| 2026-10-04 | Rams vs. Eaglesfootball · moneyline | Rams | won | 63¢ · -170 | $1,700 | +998 |
| 2026-10-03 | Spread: USC (-7.5)football · spreads | Washington | won | 51¢ · -106 | $18,000 | +16,987 |
| 2026-10-01 | Steelers vs. Brownsfootball · moneyline | Steelers | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $227 | −227 |
| 2026-09-26 | Wake Forest vs. Louisvillefootball · moneyline | Louisville | lost | 82¢ · -456 | $30,000 | −30,000 |
| 2026-09-25 | Clemson vs. Californiafootball · moneyline | Clemson | won | 55¢ · -122 | $12,500 | +10,227 |
| 2026-09-24 | Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5football · totals | Under | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $6,864 | −6,864 |
| 2026-09-23 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 72¢ · -257 | $19,551 | +7,228 |
| 2026-09-23 | Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigersbaseball · moneyline | Detroit Tigers | lost | 62¢ · -163 | $7,439 | −7,439 |
| 2026-09-22 | Spread: Giants (-3.5)football · spreads | Titans | lost | 54¢ · -119 | $313 | −313 |
| 2026-09-20 | Eagles vs. Titansfootball · moneyline | Eagles | won | 76¢ · -317 | $29,854 | +9,428 |
| 2026-09-20 | Raiders vs. Chargersfootball · moneyline | Chargers | lost | 73¢ · -270 | $95,000 | −95,000 |
| 2026-09-20 | UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Dooho Choi | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $15,725 | −15,725 |
| 2026-09-19 | Spread: USC (-22.5)football · spreads | Rutgers | won | 54¢ · -117 | $2,500 | +2,130 |
| 2026-09-19 | Coastal Carolina vs. Delawarefootball · moneyline | Delaware | won | 47¢ · +113 | $986 | +1,112 |
| 2026-09-19 | Charlotte vs. Appalachian State · Spread Appalachian State (-17.5)football · spreads | Charlotte | won | 53¢ · -115 | $5,000 | +4,352 |
| 2026-09-19 | UConn vs. Southern Miss · Spread UConn (-3.5)football · spreads | Southern Miss | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $5,000 | −5,000 |
| 2026-09-18 | Miami (FL) vs. Wake Forest: O/U 56.5football · totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -117 | $5,115 | +4,144 |
| 2026-09-18 | Houston vs. Texas Tech · Spread Texas Tech (-7.5)football · spreads | Texas Tech | lost | 51¢ · -106 | $10,243 | −10,243 |
| 2026-09-17 | Lions vs. Billsfootball · moneyline | Bills | won | 70¢ · -233 | $95,089 | +38,745 |
| 2026-09-09 | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)football · spreads | Patriots | won | 54¢ · -117 | $2,285 | +1,851 |
| 2026-09-08 | Spread: Rams (-3.5)football · spreads | Rams | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $5,632 | −5,632 |
| 2026-09-08 | 49ers vs. Ramsfootball · moneyline | Rams | lost | 65¢ · -186 | $30,525 | −30,525 |
| 2026-09-07 | Noche UFC: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Jean Silva | won | 78¢ · -360 | $1,011 | +267 |
| 2026-09-07 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athleticsbaseball · moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $20,340 | −20,340 |
| 2026-09-07 | Ohio State vs. Texasfootball · moneyline | Texas | won | 54¢ · -116 | $512 | +420 |
| 2026-09-07 | Memphis vs. Boise State · Spread Boise State (-7.5)football · spreads | Boise State | won | 52¢ · -110 | $208 | +179 |
| 2026-09-05 | UFC Fight Night: Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Daniil Donchenko | won | 68¢ · -213 | $4,064 | +1,818 |
| 2026-09-05 | Clemson vs. LSUfootball · moneyline | LSU | won | 78¢ · -365 | $30,323 | +7,900 |
| 2026-09-05 | Abilene Christian vs. Texas Tech · Spread Texas Tech (-42.5)football · spreads | Texas Tech | lost | 54¢ · -118 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-09-05 | Spread: Bears (-2.5)football · spreads | Bears | won | 54¢ · -119 | $3,171 | +2,529 |
| 2026-09-04 | Toledo vs. Michigan Statefootball · moneyline | Michigan State | won | 79¢ · -385 | $70,722 | +17,476 |
| 2026-09-04 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 72¢ · -257 | $49,686 | +18,370 |
| 2026-09-03 | Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Oriolesbaseball · moneyline | Baltimore Orioles | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $10,259 | −10,259 |
| 2026-09-02 | New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | won | 60¢ · -150 | $7,140 | +4,527 |
| 2026-09-02 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | lost | 72¢ · -258 | $59,824 | −59,824 |
| 2026-09-02 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Over | won | 50¢ · -100 | $2,563 | +2,438 |
| 2026-09-02 | Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings?baseball · baseball team first five winner | No | won | 67¢ · -203 | $1,016 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5baseball · baseball team first five total | Under | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $1,021 | −1,021 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dana White's Contender Series: Patrick Rivera vs. Adam Darby (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Adam Darby | won | 82¢ · -455 | $2,523 | +526 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dana White's Contender Series: Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Brandon Holmes | lost | 65¢ · -183 | $1,730 | −1,730 |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5baseball · totals | Under | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $3,066 | −3,066 |
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubsbaseball · moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers | won | 46¢ · +117 | $5,135 | +5,735 |
| 2026-09-01 | Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twinsbaseball · moneyline | Detroit Tigers | lost | 50¢ · +102 | $11,175 | −11,175 |
| 2026-09-01 | Athletics vs. Texas Rangersbaseball · moneyline | Texas Rangers | won | 68¢ · -212 | $50,801 | +22,767 |
| 2026-09-01 | Atlanta Braves winning after 5 innings?baseball · baseball team first five winner | No | won | 53¢ · -115 | $1,023 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning? · Spread Atlanta Braves (-1.5)baseball · spreads | Washington Nationals | won | 54¢ · -116 | $2,558 | +2,095 |
| 2026-08-31 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)baseball · spreads | New York Mets | won | 55¢ · -122 | $5,112 | +3,978 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 70¢ · -229 | $15,261 | +6,349 |
| 2026-08-30 | Memphis vs. UNLV Runnin': O/U 55.5football · totals | Over | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $17,416 | −17,416 |
| 2026-08-29 | Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationalsbaseball · moneyline | Miami Marlins | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $19,876 | −19,876 |
| 2026-08-29 | 1H Spread: USC (-23.5)football · first half spreads | San Jose State | lost | 54¢ · -118 | $102 | −102 |
| 2026-08-28 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)baseball · spreads | Texas Rangers | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $10,235 | −10,235 |
| 2026-08-28 | Tampa Bay Rays winning after 5 innings?baseball · baseball team first five winner | No | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $511 | — |
| 2026-08-28 | UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Cameron Nelson | won | 43¢ · +132 | $15,427 | +19,415 |
| 2026-08-28 | UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Song Yadong | won | 16¢ · +525 | $261 | +1,302 |
| 2026-08-28 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 64¢ · -178 | $20,360 | +10,890 |
| 2026-08-28 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5baseball · baseball team first five total | Over | lost | 51¢ · -103 | $5,123 | −5,123 |
| 2026-08-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsbaseball · moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks | lost | 53¢ · -111 | $10,237 | −10,237 |
| 2026-08-27 | Spread: Bills (-3.5)football · spreads | Steelers | won | 57¢ · -131 | $1,022 | +742 |
| 2026-08-26 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline | San Diego Padres | won | 56¢ · -130 | $20,436 | +14,997 |
| 2026-08-25 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline | San Diego Padres | lost | 56¢ · -127 | $51,101 | −51,101 |
| 2026-08-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Bravesbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 41¢ · +144 | $10,213 | +13,982 |
| 2026-08-25 | Dana White's Contender Series: Gary Balletto vs. Sean Clancy Jr. (Welterweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Sean Clancy Jr. | won | 91¢ · -1039 | $804 | +73 |
| 2026-08-25 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5baseball · baseball team first five total | Under | won | 46¢ · +118 | $514 | +575 |
| 2026-08-25 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5baseball · baseball team first five total | Under | lost | 48¢ · +107 | $3,078 | −3,078 |
| 2026-08-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 72¢ · -257 | $25,350 | +9,372 |
| 2026-08-23 | Combo: Baltimore Orioles — Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles + Under — Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5baseball · combo | — | won | 26¢ · +288 | $100 | +274 |
| 2026-08-23 | Athletics vs. Houston Astrosbaseball · moneyline | Athletics | won | 25¢ · +299 | $3,626 | +10,343 |
| 2026-08-23 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 66¢ · -191 | $2,034 | −2,034 |
| 2026-08-23 | UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Anthony Hernandez | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $10,165 | −10,165 |
| 2026-08-23 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | won | 69¢ · -224 | $1,015 | +431 |
| 2026-08-22 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks | lost | 64¢ · -178 | $8,984 | −8,984 |
| 2026-08-22 | UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Shamil Gaziev | won | 54¢ · -116 | $6,139 | +5,042 |
| 2026-08-22 | UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Shanelle Dyer | won | 88¢ · -769 | $3,017 | +373 |
| 2026-08-22 | UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Reinier de Ridder (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Reinier de Ridder | won | 78¢ · -355 | $3,640 | +976 |
| 2026-08-22 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royalsbaseball · moneyline | Kansas City Royals | won | 51¢ · -104 | $10,245 | +9,363 |
| 2026-08-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 69¢ · -223 | $49,658 | +21,212 |
| 2026-08-21 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbaseball · moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | won | 71¢ · -245 | $38,551 | +14,970 |