Public evidence record

Sc2012m

0x82fb3693ecbf880d6aef073ad55bd0642fb70b6e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.5%1,411 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.1%$102,889 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.14%2,169 pre-event fills

Settlement record

753-641Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−39.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,411 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.0% to -0.0%

1,411 closed positions · 2,617 taker fills · $102,889 deployed

Typical position $61 (median) · closing line value measured over 2,169 pre-event fills · 3% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

22 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$241

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?

Yes

entry 93¢ · -1318now 76¢ · -318−16.9 pts

Open

value$95

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?

No

entry 36¢ · +178now 27¢ · +277−9.5 pts

Open

value$73

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?

No

entry 16¢ · +521now 9¢ · +993−7.0 pts

Open

value$357

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Yes

entry 39¢ · +158now 42¢ · +138+3.2 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer1,081 closed598–471-4.5%
Football298 closed145–149-4.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 91 sports · 9 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Will Willem II Tilburg vs. PEC Zwolle end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	26¢ · +285	$17	—
2026-11-06	Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-11-06?soccer · moneyline	No	won	54¢ · -117	$61	—
2026-11-06	Hammarby IF vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 3.5soccer · totals	Over	won	41¢ · +144	$93	+127
2026-11-06	Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC · Spread Everton FC (-1.5)