Public evidence record

Sc2012m

0x82fb3693ecbf880d6aef073ad55bd0642fb70b6e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.1%658 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.0%$48,927 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.17%1,019 pre-event fills

Settlement record

370-282Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−27.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 658 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.8% to +0.6%

658 closed positions · 1,428 taker fills · $48,927 deployed

Typical position $61 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,019 pre-event fills · 4% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

18 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$194

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes

entry 58¢ · -137now 62¢ · -160+3.7 pts

Open

value$2

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +1011now 1¢−8.4 pts

Open

value$175

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?

Yes

entry 28¢ · +261now 52¢ · -106+23.8 pts

Open

value$1

Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1526now 0¢−6.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer595 closed338–252-6.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Will Club León FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	No	won	62¢ · -163	$92	—
2026-09-21	Querétaro FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals	Under	won	50¢ · -100	$28	+26
2026-09-21	Querétaro FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals	Under	won	73¢ · -270	$64	+22
2026-09-21	Tyler Warren: Anytime Touchdownfootball · anytime touchdowns