Public evidence record

speculator11

0x82fd3873dd11146b7602f8c6356c1225e47d4533

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.0%293 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+1.0%$15,605 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.38%160 pre-event fills

Settlement record

86-118Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−9.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 293 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.9% to +3.9%

293 closed positions · 655 taker fills · $15,605 deployed

Typical position $45 (median) · closing line value measured over 160 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis137 closed35–59-5.4%
Baseball65 closed21–20-1.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 53 sports · 47 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-08	Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline	Cincinnati Reds	lost	38¢ · +163	$129	−129
2026-09-06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ETNon-sports	Up	lost	54¢ · -117	$8	−8
2026-09-06	US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilotennis · moneyline	Alejandro Tabilo	lost	19¢ · +426	$52	−45
2026-09-04	Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?