Public evidence record

TheoThanlwin

0x84000951e537b38cbe481ca993ca9ed08691274c

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.3%502 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$603,411 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.36%146 pre-event fills

Settlement record

284-211Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−19.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 502 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.3% to -0.3%

502 closed positions · 660 taker fills · $603,411 deployed

Typical position $969 (median) · closing line value measured over 146 pre-event fills · 8% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports221 closed139–77-5.8%
Soccer137 closed66–70-9.9%
Baseball129 closed73–55-1.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline	GamerLegion	won	69¢ · -219	$3,047	+1,322
2026-09-21	Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawksbaseball · moneyline	Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks	exited	68¢ · -217	$247	−59
2026-09-20	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5baseball · totals	Over	lost	49¢ · +104	$513	−513
2026-09-20	New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5baseball · totals	Over	won