Public evidence record

TheoThanlwin

0x84000951e537b38cbe481ca993ca9ed08691274c

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-8.2%757 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.1%$1,073,364 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.62%270 pre-event fills

Settlement record

416-327Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−24.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 757 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.4% to -3.1%

757 closed positions · 1,011 taker fills · $1,073,364 deployed

Typical position $1,015 (median) · closing line value measured over 270 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$662

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5

Over

entry 63¢ · -170now 60¢ · -147−3.4 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports356 closed213–132-6.5%
Baseball187 closed99–87-5.0%
Soccer154 closed73–80-10.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-02	Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)esports · map handicap	FURIA	lost	72¢ · -257	$35	−35
2026-11-02	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Besports · moneyline	PARIVISION	won	32¢ · +212	$12	+24
2026-11-01	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffsesports · moneyline	Team Yandex	lost	51¢ · -105	$2,042	−2,042
2026-10-31	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FURIA (BO5) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffsesports · moneyline	Nemiga	lost