Public evidence record

Mr.Kirk

0x853212cd809da6acc458021c106af749b7aa738b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.9%1,586 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.7%$574,683 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.46%1,682 pre-event fills

Settlement record

232-762-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−45.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,586 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.4% to -0.4%

1,586 closed positions · 2,706 taker fills · $574,683 deployed

Typical position $283 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,682 pre-event fills · 15% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

16 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$3243

Will Miami Hurricanes Win the 2026 ACC Championship?

Yes

entry 62¢ · -162now 74¢ · -277+11.6 pts

Open

value$286

Will Cincinnati have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?

U 5.5

entry 60¢ · -149now 16¢ · +545−44.3 pts

Open

value$990

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes

entry 53¢ · -114now 41¢ · +145−12.5 pts

Open

value$1342

Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5

Over

entry 56¢ · -126now 47¢ · +115−9.2 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football574 closed122–286–2-8.3%
Basketball556 closed65–257-1.0%
Soccer272 closed26–127-1.9%
MMA100 closed11–44–1-4.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5basketball · totals	Under	exited	51¢ · -104	$522	+477
2026-11-06	James Madison vs. Southern Miss · Spread James Madison (-13.5)football · spreads	James Madison	exited	51¢ · -104	$621	+554
2026-11-06	Spread: UTSA (-6.5)football · spreads	UTSA	exited	56¢ · -127	$681	−447
2026-11-05	Desmond Bane: Points O/U 20.5