Public evidence record

Mr.Kirk

0x853212cd809da6acc458021c106af749b7aa738b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.1%1,171 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.4%$345,052 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.92%1,082 pre-event fills

Settlement record

118-560-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−55.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,171 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.2% to +0.1%

1,171 closed positions · 2,080 taker fills · $345,052 deployed

Typical position $239 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,082 pre-event fills · 17% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

19 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$3023

Will Miami Hurricanes Win the 2026 ACC Championship?

Yes

entry 62¢ · -162now 69¢ · -217+6.6 pts

Open

value$1051

Will Cincinnati have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?

U 5.5

entry 60¢ · -149now 57¢ · -133−2.8 pts

Open

value$876

Panthers vs. Browns: O/U 40.5

Over

entry 55¢ · -122now 57¢ · -135+2.5 pts

Open

value$5839

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

entry 59¢ · -145now 60¢ · -147+0.3 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball495 closed39–231-2.1%
Football282 closed44–137–2-6.2%
Soccer226 closed19–110-5.3%
MMA87 closed9–35–1-3.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Cowboys Team Total: O/U 27.5football · team totals	Over	exited	55¢ · -121	$1,115	+920
2026-09-20	Combo: Buccaneers — Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) + 49ers — Spread: 49ers (-6.5)football · combo	—	lost	56¢ · -129	$1,000	−1,000
2026-09-20	Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 43.5football · totals	Over	lost	56¢ · -129	$901	−901
2026-09-20	Saints vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 22.5