Public evidence record

0x8918…8824

0x891809ccbe713b313eb3de55915f0235e75b8824

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.2%569 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$200,109 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.74%157 pre-event fills

Settlement record

526-41Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−5.6uDeepest peak-to-trough over 569 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -4.3% to -0.0%

569 closed positions · 1,009 taker fills · $200,109 deployed

Typical position $201 (median) · closing line value measured over 157 pre-event fills · 3% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$505

Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-09-22?

No

entry 97¢ · -3884now 99¢ · -6797+1.1 pts

Open

value$510

FC Internazionale Milano vs. BK Häcken FF: O/U 5.5

Under

entry 98¢ · -4639now 100¢+1.9 pts

Open

value$328

FC Bayern München vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 6.5

Under

entry 90¢ · -899now 98¢ · -5961+8.4 pts

Open

value$480

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 91¢ · -1011now 96¢ · -2369+4.9 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer516 closed482–33-2.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5soccer · totals	Under	won	89¢ · -845	$201	+23
2026-09-20	Exact Score: Olympique de Marseille 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?soccer · soccer exact score	No	won	99¢ · -14186	$1,501	—
2026-09-20	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5soccer · totals	Under	won	98¢ · -4900	$1,001	+19
2026-09-20	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5