Public evidence record

chrissair

0x8e586c5914f1ebb46e4518b6f6908869fa52fb5a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.3%512 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.9%$46,914 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.67%594 pre-event fills

Settlement record

265-213-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−15.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 512 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.7% to +2.2%

512 closed positions · 682 taker fills · $46,914 deployed

Typical position $70 (median) · closing line value measured over 594 pre-event fills · 14% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$41

Will Ashton Jeanty have 7.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

No

entry 96¢ · -2247now 37¢ · +169−58.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball197 closed98–80-4.4%
Baseball135 closed83–49-0.7%
Esports58 closed28–25–1-8.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-09	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athleticsbaseball · moneyline	Toronto Blue Jays	lost	66¢ · -194	$3	−3
2026-08-28	UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline	Yan Xiaonan	lost	58¢ · -138	$118	−118
2026-08-28	Nolan Arenado: Home Runs O/U 0.5baseball · baseball player home runs	Under	won	98¢ · -4900	$569	+11
2026-08-27	Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5