Public evidence record

skembinator

0x9030cd617fd95307d5121d065c9d37864119cf12

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.4%1,185 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.1%$397,198 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.61%1,426 pre-event fills

Settlement record

577-601-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−185.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,185 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.8% to -2.1%

1,185 closed positions · 2,531 taker fills · $397,198 deployed

Typical position $99 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,426 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$140

Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?

No

entry 66¢ · -194now 100¢+34.0 pts

Open

value$120

Colorado Rapids SC vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5

Over

entry 60¢ · -150now 100¢+40.0 pts

Open

value$490

Will Tottenham Hotspur qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?

No

entry 80¢ · -404now 87¢ · -675+7.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football455 closed199–254-9.4%
Soccer264 closed149–115-2.9%
Basketball177 closed80–97-9.7%
Hockey137 closed76–61-2.2%
Esports115 closed58–56–1-6.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Magic vs. Suns: O/U 222.5basketball · totals	Under	won	50¢ · -100	$72	+68
2026-11-05	Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)football · spreads	Ravens	lost	49¢ · +104	$269	−269
2026-11-05	Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan · Spread Central Michigan (-2.5)football · spreads	Eastern Michigan	lost	49¢ · +104	$75	−75
2026-11-05	Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan · Spread Central Michigan (-1.5)football · spreads	Eastern Michigan	lost