Public evidence record

melttex

0x94a148b40aae95e8bf2bd2ed428eff4097372075

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.8%1,432 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.3%$176,338 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.63%1,321 pre-event fills

Settlement record

619-762-11Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−47.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,432 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.2% to +2.7%

1,432 closed positions · 1,894 taker fills · $176,338 deployed

Typical position $115 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,321 pre-event fills · 25% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$21

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1567now 4¢ · +2281−1.8 pts

Open

value$48

Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 17¢ · +488now 7¢ · +1438−10.5 pts

Open

value$47

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 8¢ · +1150now 9¢ · +1076+0.5 pts

Open

value$18

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 4¢ · +2471now 3¢ · +2885−0.5 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports1,218 closed532–640–7-1.5%
Tennis65 closed26–34–4-5.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-04	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Aesports · moneyline	Team Falcons	lost	5¢ · +1900	$52	−52
2026-11-03	Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)esports · map handicap	Heroic	lost	57¢ · -133	$215	−215
2026-11-03	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Non-sports	Yes	exited	16¢ · +525	$63	—
2026-11-03	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A