Public evidence record

nottheworst2

0x98bd78e67b5c40f7f2e40d79d5f1db719ee3781e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.1%647 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.5%$31,751 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.71%712 pre-event fills

Settlement record

349-260-3Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−41.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 647 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.7% to -1.6%

647 closed positions · 1,002 taker fills · $31,751 deployed

Typical position $29 (median) · closing line value measured over 712 pre-event fills · 11% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

18 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$55

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Thunder

entry 65¢ · -188now 46¢ · +120−19.8 pts

Open

value$323

Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

No

entry 46¢ · +117now 69¢ · -217+22.5 pts

Open

value$79

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes

entry 65¢ · -186now 68¢ · -208+2.5 pts

Open

value$921

Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Yes

entry 38¢ · +162now 68¢ · -211+29.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball189 closed107–67-4.1%
Football157 closed81–69–1-7.9%
Basketball150 closed81–58-4.7%
Soccer90 closed47–41-9.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 89 sports · 11 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	UTSA vs. Florida Atlanticfootball · moneyline	Florida Atlantic	won	80¢ · -400	$118	+29
2026-11-06	Jaguars vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline	Jaguars	won	86¢ · -614	$136	+21
2026-11-05	Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 38.5football · totals	Over	won	53¢ · -113	$5	+4
2026-11-05	76ers vs. Pistonsbasketball · moneyline