Public evidence record

nottheworst2

0x98bd78e67b5c40f7f2e40d79d5f1db719ee3781e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.6%411 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.6%$18,880 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.54%460 pre-event fills

Settlement record

221-160-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−21.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 411 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.1% to -0.2%

411 closed positions · 664 taker fills · $18,880 deployed

Typical position $26 (median) · closing line value measured over 460 pre-event fills · 14% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

14 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$588

Will the Toronto Blue Jays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

No

entry 80¢ · -412now 98¢ · -5614+17.8 pts

Open

value$1583

Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

No

entry 85¢ · -575now 91¢ · -1011+5.8 pts

Open

value$19

Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?

Yes

entry 16¢ · +519now 18¢ · +471+1.3 pts

Open

value$12

Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?

Yes

entry 9¢ · +1048now 7¢ · +1329−1.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball162 closed89–59-4.8%
Basketball101 closed52–38-5.2%
Soccer80 closed42–36-8.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 88 sports · 12 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Colts vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline	Chiefs	won	71¢ · -245	$32	+13
2026-09-20	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	exited	28¢ · +257	$4	—
2026-09-20	Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorersoccer · soccer anytime goalscorer	Yes	won	58¢ · -138	$7	+5
2026-09-20	Manchester City FC vs. Sunderland AFC · Spread Manchester City FC (-1.5)