value$316
Will Cincinnati have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
O 5.5
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Public evidence record
0x9b292d6d18c1f9837af7edfc9b897d8a0fe88373
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-5.3%598 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-4.0%$145,345 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-2.31%339 pre-event fillsSettlement record
237-336-21Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−73.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 598 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -13.5% to +2.9%
598 closed positions · 853 taker fills · $145,345 deployed
Typical position $97 (median) · closing line value measured over 339 pre-event fills · 30% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Cincinnati have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Ohio State have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Rutgers have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Georgia Tech have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 1H Spread: Commanders (-3.5)football · first half spreads | Commanders | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $493 | −493 |
| 2026-11-01 | Spread: Lions (-4.5)football · spreads | Vikings | won | 54¢ · -117 | $21 | +18 |
| 2026-11-01 | 1H Spread: Bengals (-6.5)football · first half spreads | Titans | won | 40¢ · +150 | $46 | +66 |
| 2026-11-01 | Ravens vs. Bills · Ravens Team Total: O/U 26.5football · team totals |
Will Washington have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Colorado have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will North Carolina have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will UCLA have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will TCU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Clemson have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Colorado have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Miami FL have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Utah State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Kansas have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Washington have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Syracuse have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Minnesota have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Florida State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will South Carolina have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will UCLA have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Utah have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Florida State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Louisville have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Texas State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Will Texas Tech have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
| Under |
| won |
| 50¢ · -100 |
| $178 |
| +173 |
| 2026-10-31 | UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Julian Erosa | won | 42¢ · +138 | $535 | +739 |
| 2026-10-31 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 53¢ · -112 | $42 | −42 |
| 2026-10-31 | UFC Fight Night: Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Talita Alencar | lost | 28¢ · +257 | $34 | −34 |
| 2026-10-31 | Will the fight be won by submission?mma · ufc method of victory | Yes | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-10-31 | Arizona vs. Texas Tech · Arizona Team Total: O/U 26.5football · team totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -117 | $53 | +44 |
| 2026-10-31 | Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilliboxing | Mbilli | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-10-27 | Cowboys vs. Eaglesfootball · moneyline | Eagles | lost | 41¢ · +146 | $417 | −417 |
| 2026-10-26 | Cowboys vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5football · first half totals | Under | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $38 | −38 |
| 2026-10-26 | Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5football · totals | Under | lost | 44¢ · +125 | $3,984 | −3,984 |
| 2026-10-26 | Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Non-sports | No | won | 82¢ · -456 | $1,631 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | Grizzlies vs. Jazz · Spread Grizzlies (-1.5)basketball · spreads | Jazz | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-26 | Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)football · spreads | Chiefs | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $3 | −3 |
| 2026-10-25 | Packers vs. Lions: O/U 40.5football · totals | Over | lost | 29¢ · +245 | $12 | −12 |
| 2026-10-25 | Packers vs. Lionsfootball · moneyline | Packers | lost | 41¢ · +144 | $15 | −15 |
| 2026-10-25 | 1H Spread: Broncos (-3.5)football · first half spreads | Cardinals | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $26 | −26 |
| 2026-10-25 | Packers vs. Lions: 1H Moneylinefootball · first half moneyline | Packers | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $35 | −35 |
| 2026-10-24 | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Alexander Volkanovski | won | 48¢ · +109 | $623 | +645 |
| 2026-10-24 | UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Merab Dvalishvili | lost | 44¢ · +129 | $457 | −457 |
| 2026-10-24 | O/U 4.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 73¢ · -269 | $137 | +48 |
| 2026-10-24 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | lost | 8¢ · +1159 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-24 | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Rizvan Kuniev | lost | 32¢ · +210 | $256 | −256 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 14¢ · +614 | $30 | −30 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 74¢ · -285 | $30 | +10 |
| 2026-10-24 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | won | 43¢ · +133 | $33 | +41 |
| 2026-10-24 | Will the fight end before Round 2?mma · ufc round of finish | No | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-10-24 | O/U 0.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 66¢ · -194 | $326 | +159 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 37¢ · +172 | $71 | −71 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 29¢ · +249 | $57 | −57 |
| 2026-10-24 | UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)mma · moneyline | Colby Thicknesse | won | 26¢ · +285 | $3 | +10 |
| 2026-10-24 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 65¢ · -187 | $391 | +199 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 58¢ · -138 | $6 | +4 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 63¢ · -170 | $19 | +11 |
| 2026-10-24 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 49¢ · +102 | $181 | +176 |
| 2026-10-24 | UFC 333: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Cam Rowston | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $207 | −207 |
| 2026-10-18 | Bills vs. Raidersfootball · moneyline | Raiders | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $330 | −330 |
| 2026-10-18 | Spread: Colts (-6.5)football · spreads | Colts | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $68 | −68 |
| 2026-10-18 | O/U 4.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 39¢ · +154 | $71 | −71 |
| 2026-10-18 | O/U 3.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 50¢ · -100 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-10-18 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $543 | −543 |
| 2026-10-18 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 31¢ · +227 | $64 | −64 |
| 2026-10-18 | UFC Fight Night: Kyle Daukaus vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middleweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Kyle Daukaus | lost | 58¢ · -138 | $8 | −8 |
| 2026-10-18 | UFC Fight Night: Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Timmy Cuamba | won | 58¢ · -137 | $21 | +14 |
| 2026-10-18 | Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?mma · ufc method of victory | No | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $12 | −12 |
| 2026-10-17 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 36¢ · +177 | $49 | −49 |
| 2026-10-17 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 73¢ · -270 | $1,584 | −1,584 |
| 2026-10-17 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 49¢ · +105 | $150 | −150 |
| 2026-10-17 | UFC Fight Night: Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow (Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Steven Koslow | won | 62¢ · -163 | $114 | +67 |
| 2026-10-17 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | won | 48¢ · +108 | $492 | +508 |
| 2026-10-17 | UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Cody Chovancek (Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | SuYoung You | won | 46¢ · +117 | $5 | +5 |
| 2026-10-17 | UFC Fight Night: Chad Anheliger vs. Steven Koslow (Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Chad Anheliger | lost | 39¢ · +156 | $236 | −236 |
| 2026-10-17 | Will the fight be won by submission?mma · ufc method of victory | Yes | lost | 23¢ · +335 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Will the fight end before Round 2?mma · ufc round of finish | Yes | lost | 22¢ · +355 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Will the fight end before Round 3?mma · ufc round of finish | Yes | won | 40¢ · +150 | $2 | +3 |
| 2026-10-17 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | won | 43¢ · +133 | $2 | +3 |
| 2026-10-17 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-11 | Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 38¢ · +163 | $1,161 | — |
| 2026-10-11 | 1H Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)football · first half spreads | Lions | won | 52¢ · -108 | $166 | +154 |
| 2026-10-11 | 1H Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)football · first half spreads | Cardinals | lost | 47¢ · +113 | $27 | −27 |
| 2026-10-11 | 49ers vs. Seahawksfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | lost | 45¢ · +122 | $168 | −168 |
| 2026-10-11 | 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5football · totals | Under | lost | 48¢ · +108 | $786 | −786 |
| 2026-10-11 | Vikings vs. Saints: 1H Moneylinefootball · first half moneyline | Saints | won | 45¢ · +122 | $134 | +158 |
| 2026-10-11 | Browns vs. Jets · Browns Team Total: O/U 19.5football · team totals | Under | won | 55¢ · -122 | $156 | +124 |
| 2026-10-11 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 43¢ · +133 | $4 | +5 |
| 2026-10-11 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $36 | −36 |
| 2026-10-11 | Will the fight be won by submission?mma · ufc method of victory | Yes | won | 27¢ · +270 | $20 | +50 |
| 2026-10-11 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | won | 39¢ · +156 | $10 | +15 |
| 2026-10-11 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 79¢ · -376 | $18 | −18 |
| 2026-10-10 | O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | lost | 20¢ · +400 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-10-10 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 17¢ · +488 | $4 | −4 |
| 2026-10-10 | UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Ernesta Kareckaite | push | 41¢ · +144 | $26 | +5 |
| 2026-10-10 | Will the fight be won by submission?mma · ufc method of victory | Yes | lost | 18¢ · +456 | $7 | −7 |
| 2026-10-10 | Will the fight end before Round 2?mma · ufc round of finish | Yes | lost | 16¢ · +525 | $83 | −83 |
| 2026-10-09 | 1H Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)football · first half spreads | Buccaneers | won | 56¢ · -127 | $17 | +13 |
| 2026-10-05 | Lions vs. Panthers: 1H Moneylinefootball · first half moneyline | Panthers | push | 41¢ · +143 | $55 | +12 |
| 2026-10-05 | Lions vs. Panthersfootball · moneyline | Lions | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $29 | −29 |
| 2026-10-04 | Chiefs vs. Raiders: 1Q Moneylinefootball · q1 moneyline | Raiders | push | 44¢ · +127 | $4 | +1 |
| 2026-10-04 | Titans vs. Ravens · Ravens Team Total: O/U 27.5football · team totals | Under | won | 52¢ · -108 | $135 | +124 |
| 2026-10-03 | UFC 332: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez (Lightweight, Early Prelims)mma · moneyline | Rafael Dos Anjos | lost | 30¢ · +233 | $155 | −155 |
| 2026-10-03 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | lost | 31¢ · +223 | $29 | −29 |
| 2026-10-03 | UFC 332: Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan (Welterweight, Early Prelims)mma · moneyline | Court McGee | lost | 33¢ · +203 | $155 | −155 |
| 2026-09-27 | Bengals vs. Steelers: 1H Moneylinefootball · first half moneyline | Steelers | push | 45¢ · +122 | $8 | +1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Bengals vs. Steelers · Spread Bengals (-3.5)football · spreads | Bengals | lost | 46¢ · +117 | $2,300 | −2,300 |
| 2026-09-27 | UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Raul Rosas Jr. | won | 37¢ · +170 | $229 | +371 |
| 2026-09-27 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 58¢ · -137 | $285 | −285 |
| 2026-09-27 | UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Ailin Perez | won | 29¢ · +245 | $106 | +259 |
| 2026-09-27 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 69¢ · -223 | $7 | +3 |
| 2026-09-26 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 98¢ · -4900 | $13 | +0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Will the fight be won by submission?mma · ufc method of victory | No | won | 63¢ · -170 | $3 | +2 |
| 2026-09-26 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | No | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $1 | −1 |
| 2026-09-26 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Under | lost | 40¢ · +150 | $1,780 | −1,780 |
| 2026-09-26 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 61¢ · -158 | $152 | −152 |
| 2026-09-26 | O/U 1.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 95¢ · -1900 | $6 | +0 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Elves Brener | won | 44¢ · +127 | $150 | +182 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Ricky Simon | lost | 33¢ · +200 | $144 | −144 |
| 2026-09-26 | UFC Fight Night · O/U 2.5 Roundsmma · totals | Over | won | 85¢ · -567 | $10 | +2 |
| 2026-09-26 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | won | 85¢ · -567 | $19 | +3 |