value$12610
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
No
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Public evidence record
0x9b559c039873cd794668492af33b748b6b0a1167
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-3.5%815 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-1.7%$656,876 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
+1.57%87 pre-event fillsSettlement record
494-109-2Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−18.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 815 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -6.2% to -0.8%
815 closed positions · 2,162 taker fills · $656,876 deployed
Typical position $500 (median) · closing line value measured over 87 pre-event fills · 32% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 86 sports · 14 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -7956 | $6,993 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $1 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | Colts vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline | Chiefs | won | 98¢ · -4900 | $1,960 | +40 |
| 2026-09-21 |
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5
Will Donald Trump Jr. post about $LAPTOP by September 30?
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?
Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?
Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections?
Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
| Milwaukee Brewers |
| won |
| 96¢ · -2366 |
| $3,187 |
| +128 |
| 2026-09-21 | Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 63.5football · totals | Under | won | 91¢ · -959 | $1,048 | +109 |
| 2026-09-20 | Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Soxbaseball · moneyline | Chicago White Sox | won | 95¢ · -1906 | $3,109 | +157 |
| 2026-09-20 | Jaguars vs. Broncosfootball · moneyline | Broncos | won | 90¢ · -900 | $990 | +110 |
| 2026-09-20 | Seahawks vs. Cardinalsfootball · moneyline | Seahawks | won | 91¢ · -1054 | $2,740 | +260 |
| 2026-09-20 | Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5baseball · totals | Under | lost | 70¢ · -233 | $711 | −711 |
| 2026-09-20 | Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astrosbaseball · moneyline | Atlanta Braves | won | 89¢ · -809 | $1,568 | +184 |
| 2026-09-20 | Browns vs. Buccaneersfootball · moneyline | Browns | won | 46¢ · +117 | $460 | +540 |
| 2026-09-20 | Browns vs. Buccaneersfootball · moneyline | Buccaneers | lost | 93¢ · -1329 | $1,860 | −780 |
| 2026-09-20 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Metsbaseball · moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | won | 99¢ · -8470 | $1,503 | +17 |
| 2026-09-20 | Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 80¢ · -400 | $808 | +192 |
| 2026-09-20 | Panthers vs. Falconsfootball · moneyline | Panthers | won | 95¢ · -1900 | $1,900 | +100 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -12258 | $1,781 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Non-sports | No | won | 85¢ · -556 | $1,024 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 89¢ · -809 | $1,669 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Saints vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline | Ravens | lost | 79¢ · -376 | $790 | −790 |
| 2026-09-20 | Eagles vs. Titansfootball · moneyline | Eagles | won | 75¢ · -300 | $750 | +250 |
| 2026-09-20 | Will OGC Nice win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 94¢ · -1567 | $941 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 89¢ · -809 | $1,790 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Non-sports | Yes | won | 97¢ · -3233 | $214 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 93¢ · -1311 | $1,352 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Viking FK win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 98¢ · -3900 | $2,010 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 100¢ · -99900 | $100 | — |
| 2026-09-20 | UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card)mma · moneyline | Dooho Choi | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $648 | −648 |
| 2026-09-20 | Florida vs. Auburnfootball · moneyline | Florida | won | 98¢ · -4266 | $10,820 | +254 |
| 2026-09-20 | Florida State vs. Alabamafootball · moneyline | Alabama | won | 95¢ · -1919 | $3,992 | +208 |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Redsbaseball · moneyline | Chicago Cubs | won | 87¢ · -669 | $1,751 | +249 |
| 2026-09-20 | Fight to Go the Distance?mma · ufc go the distance | Yes | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-09-20 | UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Charles Jourdain | lost | 64¢ · -178 | $391 | −391 |
| 2026-09-20 | UFC 331: Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne (Heavyweight, Prelims)mma · moneyline | Tai Tuivasa | lost | 68¢ · -215 | $1,673 | −1,673 |
| 2026-09-20 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangersbaseball · moneyline | Texas Rangers | won | 82¢ · -456 | $501 | +105 |
| 2026-09-20 | Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardiansbaseball · moneyline | Cleveland Guardians | won | 98¢ · -5866 | $1,988 | +32 |
| 2026-09-20 | Mississippi State vs. South Carolinafootball · moneyline | Mississippi State | won | 89¢ · -798 | $2,271 | +284 |
| 2026-09-19 | USC vs. Rutgersfootball · moneyline | USC | won | 97¢ · -3113 | $2,152 | +69 |
| 2026-09-19 | Kentucky vs. Texas A&Mfootball · moneyline | Kentucky | won | 89¢ · -809 | $1,903 | +235 |
| 2026-09-19 | Kentucky vs. Texas A&Mfootball · moneyline | Texas A&M | lost | 88¢ · -733 | $880 | −770 |
| 2026-09-19 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 94¢ · -1439 | $1,870 | +123 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 96¢ · -2532 | $1,252 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Utah State vs. Utahfootball · moneyline | Utah | won | 97¢ · -2841 | $6,569 | +231 |
| 2026-09-19 | North Texas vs. Texas Statefootball · moneyline | Texas State | won | 88¢ · -733 | $2,019 | +275 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 76¢ · -317 | $15 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Mercer vs. Georgia Techfootball · moneyline | Georgia Tech | won | 99¢ · -9310 | $1,189 | +13 |
| 2026-09-19 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | won | 89¢ · -845 | $502 | +58 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 92¢ · -1229 | $1,700 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 98¢ · -5417 | $4,914 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 99¢ · -6567 | $185 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | FC Juárez vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | won | 92¢ · -1150 | $121 | +11 |
| 2026-09-19 | Will FC Juárez win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 95¢ · -1900 | $428 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 99¢ · -9900 | $155 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbaseball · moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers | won | 98¢ · -5577 | $1,417 | +24 |
| 2026-09-19 | T20 Series Japan vs Hong Kong: Japan vs Hong Kong, Chinasoccer · moneyline | Hong Kong, China | won | 100¢ · -99900 | $962 | +1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline | San Diego Padres | won | 97¢ · -3460 | $2,439 | +67 |
| 2026-09-19 | Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angelsbaseball · moneyline | Minnesota Twins | won | 91¢ · -1011 | $1,089 | +103 |
| 2026-09-19 | New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline | New York Yankees | won | 92¢ · -1150 | $1,847 | +153 |
| 2026-09-19 | Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbaseball · moneyline | Washington Nationals | won | 99¢ · -16291 | $994 | +6 |
| 2026-09-18 | Houston vs. Texas Techfootball · moneyline | Texas Tech | won | 75¢ · -300 | $1,127 | +357 |
| 2026-09-18 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Metsbaseball · moneyline | New York Mets | won | 80¢ · -400 | $389 | +92 |
| 2026-09-18 | Miami (FL) vs. Wake Forestfootball · moneyline | Miami (FL) | won | 94¢ · -1567 | $1,886 | +114 |
| 2026-09-18 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 55¢ · -122 | $562 | +438 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Raysbaseball · nrfi | No | lost | 57¢ · -133 | $175 | −175 |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 99¢ · -7043 | $3,074 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 95¢ · -1889 | $169 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 94¢ · -1567 | $1,341 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 92¢ · -1150 | $27 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will FC Groningen win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 100¢ · -99900 | $611 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | won | 94¢ · -1506 | $1,554 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | No | lost | 71¢ · -245 | $395 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-09-18?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 96¢ · -2400 | $962 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | ILT20 Continent Cup: Kenya vs Ugandasoccer · moneyline | Uganda | won | 100¢ · -99900 | $882 | +1 |
| 2026-09-18 | ILT20 Continent Cup: Sierra Leone vs Botswanasoccer · moneyline | Botswana | won | 85¢ · -567 | $17 | +3 |
| 2026-09-18 | Australia Tour of Zimbabwe ODIs: Zimbabwe vs Australiasoccer · moneyline | Australia | won | 99¢ · -6567 | $2,947 | +43 |
| 2026-09-17 | Lions vs. Bills: O/U 72.5football · totals | Under | won | 90¢ · -870 | $1,688 | +185 |
| 2026-09-17 | European T20 Premier League: Rotterdam Dockers vs Dublin Guardianssoccer · moneyline | Dublin Guardians | won | 96¢ · -2658 | $3,921 | +140 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 99¢ · -10858 | $5,507 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | Afghanistan Tour of India T20s: India vs Afghanistansoccer · moneyline | India | won | 90¢ · -871 | $1,803 | +162 |
| 2026-09-17 | ILT20 Continent Cup: Botswana vs Kenyasoccer · moneyline | Kenya | won | 98¢ · -4055 | $1,848 | +43 |
| 2026-09-17 | South Africa Women Tour of Zimbabwe T20s: Zimbabwe Women vs South Africa Womensoccer · moneyline | South Africa Women | won | 96¢ · -2400 | $1,920 | +80 |
| 2026-09-17 | South Africa Women Tour of Zimbabwe T20s: Zimbabwe Women vs South Africa Womensoccer · moneyline | Zimbabwe Women | exited | 5¢ · +1982 | $68 | −18 |
| 2026-09-17 | Sri Lanka Tour of England T20s: England vs Sri Lankasoccer · moneyline | England | won | 86¢ · -614 | $866 | +134 |
| 2026-09-17 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 71¢ · -245 | $715 | — |
| 2026-09-17 | ILT20 Continent Cup: Rwanda vs Ugandasoccer · moneyline | Rwanda | lost | 4¢ · +2133 | $92 | −92 |
| 2026-09-17 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Non-sports | No | exited | 100¢ · -23351 | $9,381 | −6 |
| 2026-09-17 | Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astrosbaseball · moneyline | Kansas City Royals | won | 81¢ · -426 | $1,635 | +365 |
| 2026-09-17 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbaseball · moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates | lost | 69¢ · -227 | $1,887 | −1,887 |
| 2026-09-16 | AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score | No | won | 89¢ · -809 | $1,797 | +211 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-09-16?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 97¢ · -3221 | $127 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 85¢ · -567 | $851 | +149 |
| 2026-09-16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Non-sports | Yes | won | 86¢ · -614 | $430 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 5¢ · +2006 | $14 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?Non-sports | No | won | 99¢ · -10074 | $2,326 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 88% or more?Non-sports | No | won | 100¢ · -99900 | $175 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?Non-sports | Yes | won | 99¢ · -9224 | $959 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 7¢ · +1298 | $85 | — |
| 2026-09-16 | T20 Africa Continent Cup: Rwanda vs Sierra Leonesoccer · moneyline | Rwanda | won | 99¢ · -7660 | $490 | +6 |
| 2026-09-16 | T20 Africa Continent Cup: Botswana vs Ugandasoccer · moneyline | Uganda | won | 95¢ · -1900 | $1,467 | +73 |
| 2026-09-16 | Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5baseball · totals | Under | won | 95¢ · -1819 | $3,611 | +189 |
| 2026-09-16 | San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbaseball · moneyline | San Francisco Giants | won | 94¢ · -1567 | $5,280 | +320 |