Public evidence record

webb50008

0xa245511ddc0a449a1a1d4b08dc85007fe8ffbf9e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-1.0%5,473 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.7%$376,157 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-6.25%545 pre-event fills

Settlement record

5184-224-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−50.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 5,473 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -1.6% to -0.4%

5,473 closed positions · 6,766 taker fills · $376,157 deployed

Typical position $47 (median) · closing line value measured over 545 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

25 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$31

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No

entry 91¢ · -1051now 56¢ · -129−35.1 pts

Open

value$31

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes

entry 91¢ · -972now 95¢ · -1718+3.8 pts

Open

value$41

Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

No

entry 99¢ · -6992now 100¢+1.3 pts

Open

value$41

Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

Yes

entry 52¢ · -110now 96¢ · -2464+43.7 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball3,442 closed3252–133–2-0.9%
Baseball1,576 closed1521–52-1.2%
Soccer150 closed142–8-4.2%
Football118 closed108–10-5.2%
Tennis104 closed91–10–2-4.7%
Hockey52 closed46–5-4.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5football · totals	Under	won	92¢ · -1150	$20	+2
2026-11-05	Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 239.5basketball · totals	Under	won	98¢ · -4900	$20	+0
2026-11-05	Lakers vs. Kingsbasketball · moneyline	Lakers	won	97¢ · -3126	$15	+0
2026-11-05	Spread: 76ers (-24.5)basketball · spreads