Public evidence record

webb50008

0xa245511ddc0a449a1a1d4b08dc85007fe8ffbf9e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-0.8%5,311 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.7%$372,120 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-5.27%369 pre-event fills

Settlement record

5041-205-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−48.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 5,311 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -1.4% to -0.3%

5,311 closed positions · 6,587 taker fills · $372,120 deployed

Typical position $49 (median) · closing line value measured over 369 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

25 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$4

Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Yes

entry 70¢ · -239now 61¢ · -157−9.3 pts

Open

value$40

Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?

No

entry 99¢ · -7652now 100¢+1.0 pts

Open

value$40

Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?

No

entry 99¢ · -8375now 98¢ · -5961−0.5 pts

Open

value$30

Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Yes

entry 49¢ · +104now 99¢ · -6797

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball3,405 closed3217–131–2-0.9%
Baseball1,536 closed1488–45-0.9%
Soccer150 closed142–8-4.2%
Tennis104 closed91–10–2-4.3%
Hockey52 closed46–5-3.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 95 sports · 5 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)baseball · spreads	Chicago White Sox	won	99¢ · -9900	$13	+0
2026-09-20	Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)football · spreads	Seahawks	won	98¢ · -4900	$7	+0
2026-09-20	Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5football · totals	Under	won	94¢ · -1567	$10	+1
2026-09-20	Spread: 49ers (-20.5)football · spreads