Public evidence record

tony396264

0xa2c3efe706a903f10544d68af43d40b441898b21

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 8, 2026

Source sync: Oct 8, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.6%199 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-7.1%$185,818 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.89%101 pre-event fills

Settlement record

97-67Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−18.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 199 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.9% to +3.7%

199 closed positions · 473 taker fills · $185,818 deployed

Typical position $456 (median) · closing line value measured over 101 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports98 closed43–36-5.3%
Basketball68 closed40–16-2.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 95 sports · 5 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-07	Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)baseball · spreads	Milwaukee Brewers	won	53¢ · -113	$928	+730
2026-10-06	Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5baseball · totals	Over	won	53¢ · -113	$723	+596
2026-09-10	Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	BESTIA	lost	32¢ · +216	$15	−15
2026-08-11	Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5)