Public evidence record

zxcvb1

0xa4ddf437f6e80ab828ba582c1c46e0cc1eb323ff

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.7%985 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.9%$81,128 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.14%1,030 pre-event fills

Settlement record

260-493-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−51.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 985 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.9% to -0.5%

985 closed positions · 2,031 taker fills · $81,128 deployed

Typical position $44 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,030 pre-event fills · 19% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

6 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1811

Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?

Yes

entry 35¢ · +182now 36¢ · +182+0.0 pts

Open

value$189

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?

No

entry 54¢ · -117now 60¢ · -147+5.5 pts

Open

value$13

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 8¢ · +1136now 10¢ · +895+2.0 pts

Open

value$10

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 8¢ · +1150now 9¢ · +1076+0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball483 closed143–273-10.6%
Soccer175 closed30–61–1-6.3%
Tennis155 closed46–78-5.6%
Esports138 closed34–71-4.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 98 sports · 2 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-04	Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)soccer · spreads	Real Betis Balompié	won	64¢ · -178	$2,085	+1,115
2026-11-03	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	63¢ · -170	$257	—
2026-11-03	Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?soccer · moneyline	Yes	exited	35¢ · +182	$1,868	—
2026-10-31	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?