Public evidence record

0xa844…83b8

0xa844c3d80fca2cb601efc9843ffe677e433a83b8

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+0.3%1,836 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.4%$763,527 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+6.98%232 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1002-574-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−42.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,836 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -2.9% to +3.5%

1,836 closed positions · 4,858 taker fills · $763,527 deployed

Typical position $261 (median) · closing line value measured over 232 pre-event fills · 6% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$48

Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?

No

entry 94¢ · -1661now 99¢+4.7 pts

Open

value$174

Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 1¢now 2¢ · +5961+0.8 pts

Open

value$243

Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 1¢ · +6703now 4¢ · +2757+2.0 pts

Open

value$23

Will LYON win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 2¢ · +4305now 1¢−1.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports1,615 closed883–487–3-0.2%
MMA135 closed65–58–1+0.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 93 sports · 7 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?Non-sports	Yes	exited	1¢ · +12205	$90	—
2026-11-04	Will LYON win Worlds 2026?Non-sports	Yes	lost	2¢ · +4302	$83	—
2026-11-04	Exact Score: FK Radnicki Nis 4 - 0 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?soccer · soccer exact score	Yes	lost	99¢ · -9900	$40	—
2026-11-04	Exact Score: FK Radnicki Nis 0 - 5 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?