Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Attorney General election?
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Public evidence record
0xa9175ba1b3ed219d392bd6474f0da4492c884e8d
Record anatomy
Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.
The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.
Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.
Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet
Typical return
-4.4%1,840 closed · winsorized per-positionBankroll return
-6.1%$271,939 deployed · longshots uncappedClosing line value
-1.14%1,650 pre-event fillsSettlement record
931-826-16Wins · losses · pushesWorst drawdown
−122.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,840 closed95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.5% to -0.4%
1,840 closed positions · 2,088 taker fills · $271,939 deployed
Typical position $105 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,650 pre-event fills · 29% of fills were market making
Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.
Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Attorney General election?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.
Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.
Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.
In this window: 65 sports · 35 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.
| Settled | Market | Side | Result | Entry price | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. NK Celje: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 82¢ · -456 | $113 | +24 |
| 2026-11-05 | Celtic FC vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $313 | −313 |
| 2026-11-05 | Counter-Strike: eSuba vs BRUTE SQ (BO3) - MČR Group Besports · moneyline | BRUTE SQ | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $125 | −125 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 0.5 |
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
| Under |
| lost |
| 41¢ · +146 |
| $39 |
| −39 |
| 2026-11-05 | RC Celta de Vigo vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: 1st Half O/U 1.5soccer · first half totals | Under | lost | 69¢ · -223 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-11-05 | Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)soccer · spreads | AZ | won | 78¢ · -355 | $76 | +20 |
| 2026-11-05 | AZ vs. Juventus FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5soccer · first half totals | Under | lost | 64¢ · -178 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-11-05 | SC União Torreense vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 72¢ · -257 | $143 | −143 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 78¢ · -355 | $145 | +39 |
| 2026-11-05 | AZ vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 78¢ · -355 | $110 | +29 |
| 2026-11-05 | Spread: NEC (-1.5)soccer · spreads | AS Omónoia Leukosías | lost | 65¢ · -186 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-11-05 | PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: 1st Half O/U 0.5soccer · first half totals | Over | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $29 | −29 |
| 2026-11-05 | PFK Levski Sofia vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 57¢ · -133 | $71 | +51 |
| 2026-11-05 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 63¢ · -170 | $79 | — |
| 2026-11-05 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 77¢ · -333 | $161 | +46 |
| 2026-11-05 | Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | won | 72¢ · -257 | $75 | +28 |
| 2026-11-05 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 86¢ · -614 | $117 | — |
| 2026-11-05 | SC União Torreense vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 87¢ · -669 | $117 | −117 |
| 2026-11-05 | RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 5.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 88¢ · -733 | $119 | +15 |
| 2026-11-04 | Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 51¢ · -104 | $30 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Under | lost | 69¢ · -223 | $40 | −40 |
| 2026-11-04 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | lost | 66¢ · -194 | $60 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | AEK vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 2.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | won | 60¢ · -150 | $126 | +80 |
| 2026-11-04 | Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)soccer · spreads | Real Madrid CF | lost | 60¢ · -150 | $140 | −140 |
| 2026-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline | Yes | won | 79¢ · -376 | $136 | — |
| 2026-11-04 | PSV vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 47¢ · +113 | $140 | +151 |
| 2026-11-04 | Counter-Strike · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $65 | −65 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $420 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 80¢ · -400 | $160 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Non-sports | No | won | 36¢ · +178 | $209 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Bulls vs. Knicksbasketball · moneyline | Knicks | won | 82¢ · -456 | $22 | +5 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 59¢ · -144 | $22 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Counter-Strike · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -117 | $23 | +19 |
| 2026-11-03 | Counter-Strike · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 64¢ · -178 | $23 | +12 |
| 2026-11-03 | Counter-Strike · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 58¢ · -138 | $23 | +16 |
| 2026-11-03 | Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 71¢ · -245 | $53 | +21 |
| 2026-11-03 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Team Falcons | won | 65¢ · -186 | $77 | +40 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of November 2 2026?Non-sports | No | lost | 88¢ · -733 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 68¢ · -213 | $41 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Besports · moneyline | BetBoom Team | won | 46¢ · +117 | $20 | +22 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 86¢ · -614 | $27 | +4 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on November 3?Non-sports | No | won | 73¢ · -270 | $10 | +4 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 65¢ · -186 | $14 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffsesports · moneyline | Yellow Submarine | won | 62¢ · -163 | $75 | +44 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 42¢ · +138 | $6 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 55¢ · -122 | $32 | +25 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 84¢ · -525 | $39 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 79¢ · -376 | $31 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline | Yellow Submarine | lost | 61¢ · -156 | $95 | −95 |
| 2026-11-03 | West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 76¢ · -317 | $68 | +20 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 81¢ · -426 | $39 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 74¢ · -285 | $40 | — |
| 2026-11-03 | LASK Linz vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 73¢ · -270 | $80 | +28 |
| 2026-11-03 | Spread: LASK Linz (-2.5)soccer · spreads | ŠK Slovan Bratislava | lost | 70¢ · -233 | $88 | −88 |
| 2026-11-03 | SC Internacional vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5soccer · totals | Under | won | 85¢ · -567 | $138 | +23 |
| 2026-11-03 | Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5soccer · totals | Over | lost | 55¢ · -122 | $166 | −166 |
| 2026-11-03 | Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?Non-sports | Yes | won | 83¢ · -488 | $123 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 23¢ · +335 | $41 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | exited | 63¢ · -170 | $315 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | exited | 42¢ · +138 | $149 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 89¢ · -809 | $28 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 84¢ · -525 | $49 | −49 |
| 2026-11-02 | Map 2 Rounds Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 54¢ · -117 | $43 | +35 |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | won | 79¢ · -376 | $65 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | won | 88¢ · -733 | $66 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Non-sports | No | exited | 63¢ · -170 | $34 | — |
| 2026-11-02 | Map 2 Rounds Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | lost | 54¢ · -117 | $45 | −45 |
| 2026-11-02 | Map 2 Rounds Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | won | 56¢ · -127 | $27 | +21 |
| 2026-11-02 | Pepperdine Waves vs. Cornell Big Redbasketball · moneyline | Cornell Big Red | won | 41¢ · +144 | $51 | +69 |
| 2026-11-02 | Heat vs. Lakersbasketball · moneyline | Heat | lost | 44¢ · +127 | $48 | −48 |
| 2026-11-02 | Smith vs. Delaney: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5tennis · tennis first set totals | Under | won | 58¢ · -138 | $124 | +85 |
| 2026-11-02 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Besports · moneyline | Aurora Gaming | won | 56¢ · -127 | $46 | +34 |
| 2026-11-02 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Aesports · moneyline | Legacy | lost | 62¢ · -163 | $95 | −95 |
| 2026-11-02 | Suns vs. Warriorsbasketball · moneyline | Warriors | won | 57¢ · -133 | $110 | +79 |
| 2026-11-02 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 34¢ · +194 | $81 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Map 2 Rounds Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals | Under | lost | 53¢ · -113 | $28 | −28 |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Attorney General election?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 75¢ · -300 | $232 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group Aesports · moneyline | TheMongolz | won | 48¢ · +108 | $135 | +139 |
| 2026-11-01 | Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodartennis · moneyline | Rafael Jodar | won | 79¢ · -376 | $859 | +217 |
| 2026-11-01 | Map Handicap: MZP (-1.5) vs WBT Academy (+1.5)esports · map handicap | WBT Academy | won | 55¢ · -122 | $21 | +17 |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 89¢ · -809 | $203 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Non-sports | No | won | 85¢ · -567 | $224 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winneresports · child moneyline | Team Yandex | push | 53¢ · -113 | $189 | −15 |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Non-sports | No | lost | 35¢ · +186 | $191 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 77¢ · -335 | $113 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Non-sports | Yes | lost | 36¢ · +178 | $213 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 58¢ · -138 | $28 | — |
| 2026-11-01 | Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: Real Madrid CF O/U 4.5soccer · soccer team totals | Over | lost | 51¢ · -104 | $73 | −73 |
| 2026-10-28 | Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Runetennis · moneyline | Hubert Hurkacz | lost | 62¢ · -163 | $682 | −682 |
| 2026-10-27 | Torino FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5soccer · totals | Over | won | 59¢ · -144 | $197 | +130 |
| 2026-10-27 | Erste Bank Open: Jurij Rodionov vs Nikoloz Basilashvilitennis · moneyline | Nikoloz Basilashvili | won | 56¢ · -127 | $199 | +148 |
| 2026-10-27 | Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoetennis · moneyline | Frances Tiafoe | lost | 52¢ · -108 | $149 | −149 |
| 2026-10-27 | Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashimatennis · moneyline | Brandon Nakashima | lost | 67¢ · -203 | $148 | −148 |
| 2026-10-27 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffsesports · moneyline | fnatic | won | 46¢ · +117 | $74 | +82 |
| 2026-10-27 | Swiss Indoors Basel: Stan Wawrinka vs Jiri Leheckatennis · moneyline | Jiri Lehecka | won | 84¢ · -525 | $213 | +38 |
| 2026-10-25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?Non-sports | No | exited | 82¢ · -456 | $47 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Non-sports | No | exited | 33¢ · +203 | $93 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Non-sports | Yes | exited | 27¢ · +270 | $92 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Non-sports | No | exited | 61¢ · -156 | $105 | — |
| 2026-10-25 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffsesports · moneyline | paiN | won | 59¢ · -144 | $58 | +39 |