Public evidence record

SowRow

0xa9453d5d4660040e939f5689fb91eaf241ab59fd

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.6%112 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.3%$4,558 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.99%267 pre-event fills

Settlement record

58-36-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−8.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 112 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.8% to +3.6%

112 closed positions · 431 taker fills · $4,558 deployed

Typical position $31 (median) · closing line value measured over 267 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$5

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?

Yes

entry 96¢ · -2400now 100¢+4.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer63 closed38–22-5.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Will Leeds United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	No	lost	76¢ · -317	$325	—
2026-09-20	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	No	lost	56¢ · -127	$17	—
2026-09-19	Will Everton FC win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	55¢ · -122	$16	—
2026-09-19	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?