Public evidence record

0xaa08…d98a

0xaa08417743ca4ed010ce0d27899b530e50fad98a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.3%492 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+3.5%$1,245,568 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+18.01%169 pre-event fills

Settlement record

339-143-7Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−6.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 492 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.3% to +1.7%

492 closed positions · 2,978 taker fills · $1,245,568 deployed

Typical position $1,286 (median) · closing line value measured over 169 pre-event fills · 7% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$2412

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 40¢ · +148now 56¢ · -128+15.8 pts

Open

value$913

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +237now 21¢ · +367−8.3 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis491 closed338–143–7-3.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Buenos Aires 2: Thiago Cigarran vs Tomas Martineztennis · moneyline	Tomas Martinez	won	88¢ · -743	$13,419	+1,719
2026-09-21	Buenos Aires 2: Thiago Cigarran vs Tomas Martineztennis · moneyline	Thiago Cigarran	lost	5¢ · +1890	$52	−52
2026-09-21	M25 Sharm ElSheikh: Darsh Sachin Patel vs Finn Reillytennis · moneyline	Darsh Sachin Patel	won	57¢ · -132	$940	+687
2026-09-21	Ankara: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Polina Iatcenko