Public evidence record

dumbguy

0xac65e23705a693fb2e79a92f9d518ba5af38cfe6

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-1.2%289 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.0%$120,681 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.23%296 pre-event fills

Settlement record

175-110-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−19.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 289 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.5% to +6.2%

289 closed positions · 308 taker fills · $120,681 deployed

Typical position $363 (median) · closing line value measured over 296 pre-event fills · 25% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$518

Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Parma Calcio 1913 O/U 2.5 Corners

Over

entry 60¢ · -150now 62¢ · -160+1.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball143 closed82–61-3.9%
MMA64 closed37–24–3-2.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 3.5basketball · assists	Yes	lost	57¢ · -133	$423	−423
2026-11-04	Cavaliers vs. Thunder · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5basketball · assists	No	lost	52¢ · -108	$1,022	−1,022
2026-11-02	Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5basketball · assists	No	won	54¢ · -117	$355	+288
2026-11-02	Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Parma Calcio 1913 O/U 2.5 Cornerssoccer · soccer team total corners	Over	won