Public evidence record

seethreepoh

0xad542a9537053b919f01a4cd3ece03c81bac006a

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+2.6%1,012 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+2.4%$75,358 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.51%325 pre-event fills

Settlement record

535-412-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−57.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,012 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -2.5% to +7.7%

1,012 closed positions · 1,176 taker fills · $75,358 deployed

Typical position $49 (median) · closing line value measured over 325 pre-event fills · 19% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$224

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No

entry 54¢ · -117now 60¢ · -147+5.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball890 closed474–364–1+2.5%
Tennis62 closed24–29-10.4%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbaseball · moneyline	Arizona Diamondbacks	won	65¢ · -186	$48	+26
2026-09-20	Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astrosbaseball · moneyline	Houston Astros	lost	71¢ · -245	$123	−123
2026-09-20	Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padresbaseball · moneyline	San Diego Padres	won	64¢ · -178	$160	+90
2026-09-20	New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks