Public evidence record

TB14

0xae2b0aaea325a32870f56ff19df3b87acaa190ea

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-16.4%397 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-10.4%$717,727 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.51%929 pre-event fills

Settlement record

102-265Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−68.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 397 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -25.9% to -6.9%

397 closed positions · 1,797 taker fills · $717,727 deployed

Typical position $568 (median) · closing line value measured over 929 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

9 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$68

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

No

entry 22¢ · +363now 0¢−21.3 pts

Open

value$11

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes

entry 0¢now 0¢−0.4 pts

Open

value$5

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes

entry 0¢now 0¢−0.0 pts

Open

value$245

Will Kenneth Walker III win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

Yes

entry 20¢ · +391now 20¢ · +400−0.4 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer235 closed51–173-22.1%
Football79 closed34–37+1.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Combo: Yes — Bhayshul Tuten: Anytime Touchdown + Jaguars — Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)football · combo	—	won	35¢ · +188	$250	+448
2026-11-05	Bhayshul Tuten: Anytime Touchdownfootball · anytime touchdowns	Yes	won	41¢ · +144	$257	+352
2026-11-05	Trevor Lawrence: Anytime Touchdownfootball · anytime touchdowns	Yes	lost	20¢ · +400	$104	−104
2026-11-05	Derrick Henry: Anytime Touchdown