Public evidence record

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0xae57a71d019d0118d03b7248c9fbd4ef10dd813f

Not ranked. median stake under $25 (typical position $20.00). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

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Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.2%735 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.4%$25,616 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.56%156 pre-event fills

Settlement record

519-38Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−5.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 735 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -4.4% to -2.1%

735 closed positions · 1,759 taker fills · $25,616 deployed

Typical position $20 (median) · closing line value measured over 156 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

We couldn’t reach the source just now, so this is unavailable rather than empty. The settled record below is unaffected.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Basketball277 closed202–11-3.0%
Soccer226 closed165–1-3.0%
Hockey91 closed66–2-2.8%
Baseball58 closed32–9-5.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 22 sports · 78 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 6?Non-sports	No	won	100¢ · -49900	$90	+0
2026-11-06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on November 7?Non-sports	No	exited	100¢ · -99900	$60	—
2026-11-06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 6?Non-sports	No	exited	100¢ · -99900	$30	—
2026-11-05	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on November 5?