Public evidence record

Alert-Halving

0xae817ddfed1c3b37ad23b5e9397cd270ae94f04b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.6%1,204 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.8%$316,336 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.27%1,287 pre-event fills

Settlement record

674-426-11Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−71.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,204 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.6% to -0.7%

1,204 closed positions · 2,199 taker fills · $316,336 deployed

Typical position $131 (median) · closing line value measured over 1,287 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball530 closed282–215–1-4.3%
Tennis492 closed297–141–10-3.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 79 sports · 21 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffsesports · moneyline	Natus Vincere	won	72¢ · -257	$2,028	+750
2026-11-05	Jaguars vs. Ravensfootball · moneyline	Jaguars	won	81¢ · -426	$2,011	+458
2026-11-05	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoianatennis · moneyline	Sorana Cirstea	won	78¢ · -355	$2,022	+542
2026-11-05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET