Public evidence record

RTIII

0xb225d60a401caa0d94247e19560bd390e8a7d86b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.4%237 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-9.3%$35,447 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.21%214 pre-event fills

Settlement record

102-122Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−48.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 237 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.5% to +1.7%

237 closed positions · 276 taker fills · $35,447 deployed

Typical position $150 (median) · closing line value measured over 214 pre-event fills · 4% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1

Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +233now 0¢−29.9 pts

Open

value$645

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes

entry 7¢ · +1318now 16¢ · +539+8.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football161 closed75–80-5.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 92 sports · 8 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-03	Combo: Over — Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5 + Bears — Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)football · combo	—	won	54¢ · -116	$300	+245
2026-11-03	Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)football · spreads	Jaguars	won	52¢ · -108	$304	+273
2026-11-03	Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 225.5basketball · totals	Over	lost	49¢ · +104	$154	−154
2026-11-01	Combo: Jaguars — Colts vs. Jaguars + Raiders — Spread: Jets (-7.5) + Falcons — Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5) + Cowboys — Cardinals vs. Cowboys + Rams — Chargers vs. Rams + Patriots — Patriots vs. Dolphins + Bengals — Titans vs. Bengals