Public evidence record

RTIII

0xb225d60a401caa0d94247e19560bd390e8a7d86b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.4%182 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-9.1%$26,620 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.23%142 pre-event fills

Settlement record

79-91Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−31.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 182 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.1% to +3.3%

182 closed positions · 223 taker fills · $26,620 deployed

Typical position $110 (median) · closing line value measured over 142 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

5 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$3

Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +235now 0¢−29.7 pts

Open

value$111

Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

Yes

entry 13¢ · +672now 9¢ · +1076−4.5 pts

Open

value$6

Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +233now 1¢−29.4 pts

Open

value$2446

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes

entry 19¢ · +436now 18¢ · +448−0.4 pts

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football110 closed55–50-3.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 84 sports · 16 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5football · totals	Under	lost	51¢ · -104	$306	−156
2026-09-20	Spread: KC (-5.5)football · spreads	KC	lost	52¢ · -108	$156	−156
2026-09-20	Combo: Buccaneers — Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) + Chargers — Raiders vs. Chargers + Ravens — Saints vs. Ravens + Eagles — Eagles vs. Titansfootball · combo	—	lost	35¢ · +185	$150	−150
2026-09-19	Packers vs. Jets: O/U 44.5