Public evidence record

ivanovix91

0xb3981665faeff55f6ca774d2f99377f490f93a9f

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+0.3%145 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+2.2%$27,162 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.20%87 pre-event fills

Settlement record

104-15-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−4.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 145 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -5.1% to +5.7%

145 closed positions · 467 taker fills · $27,162 deployed

Typical position $105 (median) · closing line value measured over 87 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

6 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$6

Will Joan García (Barcelona) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 La Liga season?

Yes

entry 19¢ · +427now 22¢ · +349+3.3 pts

Open

value$24

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Yes

entry 71¢ · -250now 87¢ · -669+15.6 pts

Open

value$17

Will Málaga be relegated from the 2026-27 LaLiga?

Yes

entry 57¢ · -133now 66¢ · -194+9.0 pts

Open

value$12

Will Le Havre be relegated from the 2026-27 Ligue 1?

Yes

entry 47¢ · +113now 59¢ · -141+11.5 pts

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 50 sports · 50 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Non-sports	Yes	won	66¢ · -194	$5	—
2026-09-20	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Non-sports	Over	exited	80¢ · -400	$10	−10
2026-09-20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4PM ETNon-sports	Down	exited	90¢ · -900	$90	+9
2026-09-20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET