Public evidence record

0xbae1…d8ab

0xbae185ff7f75aca3abca60825944db511c05d8ab

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+0.3%174 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.6%$55,214 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.69%301 pre-event fills

Settlement record

123-48Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−6.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 174 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.4% to +8.0%

174 closed positions · 426 taker fills · $55,214 deployed

Typical position $200 (median) · closing line value measured over 301 pre-event fills · 21% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$99

Will Germany win on 2026-09-24?

No

entry 62¢ · -163now 62¢ · -160−0.5 pts

Open

value$99

Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-09-24?

No

entry 70¢ · -233now 70¢ · -228−0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer158 closed111–44+0.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to Scoresoccer · both teams to score	Yes	won	64¢ · -178	$153	+82
2026-09-19	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline	No	lost	53¢ · -113	$102	—
2026-09-19	Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	26¢ · +285	$41	—
2026-09-19	Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	36¢ · +178