Public evidence record

barr1

0xbc0b9499034f3fb3151e142f0ee39dce08b5e3a8

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.3%121 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.3%$6,202 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.66%154 pre-event fills

Settlement record

48-64Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−8.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 121 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -18.5% to +3.8%

121 closed positions · 360 taker fills · $6,202 deployed

Typical position $41 (median) · closing line value measured over 154 pre-event fills · 5% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

17 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$165

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

Yes

entry 89¢ · -808now 98¢ · -4155+8.7 pts

Open

value$116

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Yes

entry 78¢ · -354now 91¢ · -953+12.5 pts

Open

value$5

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes

entry 5¢ · +1876now 1¢−4.2 pts

Open

value$42

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Yes

entry 5¢ · +1888now 14¢ · +609+9.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer65 closed24–37-9.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	EC Vitória vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5soccer · totals	Over	exited	55¢ · -122	$61	+48
2026-09-20	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	70¢ · -236	$71	—
2026-09-20	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	19¢ · +426	$10	—
2026-09-20	AC Milan vs. US Lecce · Spread AC Milan (-1.5)