Public evidence record

akirra

0xbd3a01ef18c402d09b5e1bcdd63c43bd52ad91fd

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.2%4,223 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+1.2%$377,607 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+2.18%778 pre-event fills

Settlement record

2181-1904-119Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−83.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 4,223 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -6.3% to -0.2%

4,223 closed positions · 5,601 taker fills · $377,607 deployed

Typical position $41 (median) · closing line value measured over 778 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis2,066 closed1085–887–81-7.4%
Esports1,507 closed754–712–38-1.6%
Soccer468 closed251–217+4.2%
Baseball115 closed61–52-3.3%
Hockey64 closed29–35-2.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	LoL: Pyramid IV Esports vs Lodis (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Aesports · moneyline	Lodis	won	80¢ · -400	$251	+60
2026-09-21	LoL: Pyramid IV Esports vs Lodis - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline	Lodis	won	71¢ · -245	$221	+86
2026-09-21	LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Arctic Pandas (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Aesports · moneyline	Skillcamp Esport	won	71¢ · -244	$16	+6
2026-09-21	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Sangal - Map 1 Winneresports · child moneyline	Sangal	lost