Public evidence record

M123888

0xbf49b28a5cd0a1780dc66133dc9d31e018d6b4a5

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.0%2,004 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.3%$181,146 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.89%4,653 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1196-777-14Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−94.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,004 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.2% to -3.7%

2,004 closed positions · 20,185 taker fills · $181,146 deployed

Typical position $52 (median) · closing line value measured over 4,653 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis1,108 closed672–421–9-8.2%
Baseball326 closed183–139–1-6.3%
Soccer176 closed107–68–1-5.8%
Esports154 closed89–60–2-6.3%
Football102 closed64–37-4.5%
MMA77 closed48–26–1-0.6%
Basketball52 closed26–24-8.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-05?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	68¢ · -212	$8	—
2026-11-05	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tereza Valentova vs Alexandra Ealatennis · moneyline	Alexandra Eala	won	70¢ · -233	$10	+4
2026-11-05	Big Bash League, Women: Adelaide Strikers vs Brisbane Heatsoccer · moneyline	Adelaide Strikers	lost	52¢ · -108	$9	−9
2026-11-05	Heat vs. Clippersbasketball · moneyline	Clippers	lost	85¢ · -576