Public evidence record

M123888

0xbf49b28a5cd0a1780dc66133dc9d31e018d6b4a5

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-7.5%1,563 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.0%$115,947 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.11%3,565 pre-event fills

Settlement record

912-626-14Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−82.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,563 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -11.2% to -3.8%

1,563 closed positions · 15,932 taker fills · $115,947 deployed

Typical position $43 (median) · closing line value measured over 3,565 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$147

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

Yes

entry 54¢ · -120now 49¢ · +106−6.0 pts

Open

value$735

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

Yes

entry 69¢ · -224now 79¢ · -365+9.3 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis904 closed538–353–9-8.2%
Baseball305 closed171–130–1-5.8%
Soccer144 closed85–58–1-6.7%
Esports95 closed50–42–2-7.1%
MMA70 closed42–25–1-1.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Plovdiv 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Pol Martin Tiffontennis · moneyline	Benjamin Hassan	lost	42¢ · +138	$57	−57
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linettetennis · moneyline	Magda Linette	lost	81¢ · -438	$290	−290
2026-09-21	Colts vs. Chiefsfootball · moneyline	Chiefs	won	70¢ · -234	$476	+203
2026-09-20	Jaguars vs. Broncosfootball · moneyline	Broncos	won	61¢ · -160