Public evidence record

NewsGurus

0xc27830f67a48df607b661ac1417e4d96b2e9a116

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.6%1,359 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.8%$62,657 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.30%3,088 pre-event fills

Settlement record

198-424Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−67.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,359 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.4% to -1.9%

1,359 closed positions · 4,765 taker fills · $62,657 deployed

Typical position $26 (median) · closing line value measured over 3,088 pre-event fills · 18% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$38

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes

entry 19¢ · +432now 18¢ · +442−0.3 pts

Open

value$13

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes

entry 17¢ · +481now 12¢ · +747−5.4 pts

Open

value$8

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1606now 12¢ · +716+6.4 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball1,356 closed197–423-5.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-02	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Non-sports	Yes	exited	56¢ · -127	$14	—
2026-11-02	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNon-sports	Yes	exited	54¢ · -117	$3	—
2026-10-29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?Non-sports	Yes	exited	4¢ · +2400	$0	−0
2026-10-29	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5