Public evidence record

frohp5

0xc3973025163de81e367ad29c21e296e51684bb3b

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

+3.2%4,229 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+5.3%$2,350,105 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

+1.35%265 pre-event fills

Settlement record

2497-1244-15Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−24.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 4,229 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: +1.0% to +5.3%

4,229 closed positions · 9,399 taker fills · $2,350,105 deployed

Typical position $304 (median) · closing line value measured over 265 pre-event fills · 14% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1103

Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 1¢ · +6749now 3¢ · +2885+1.9 pts

Open

value$492

Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 1¢now 2¢ · +5614+1.1 pts

Open

value$167

Will LYON win Worlds 2026?

Yes

entry 2¢ · +4925now 1¢−1.3 pts

Open

value$100

Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 21¢ · +370now 23¢ · +344+1.2 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports3,733 closed2209–1080–12+2.7%
MMA270 closed146–100–3+5.4%
Soccer148 closed81–52-4.8%
Basketball72 closed55–12-2.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-07	Raptors vs. Bucksbasketball · moneyline	Raptors	won	81¢ · -426	$505	+113
2026-11-07	Wizards vs. Hawksbasketball · moneyline	Hawks	won	89¢ · -809	$558	+66
2026-11-07	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 4 Winneresports · child moneyline	T1	won	60¢ · -149	$11,334	+7,235
2026-11-07	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 3 Winneresports · child moneyline