Public evidence record

M958228713

0xc4b10add55ece98d6f7d6a5005e4dafd3bf2d21f

Not ranked. market maker (33% maker fills). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.4%375 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-0.5%$192,644 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.63%601 pre-event fills

Settlement record

132-225-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−25.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 375 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -14.5% to +3.7%

375 closed positions · 1,584 taker fills · $192,644 deployed

Typical position $337 (median) · closing line value measured over 601 pre-event fills · 33% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$26

Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 0¢now 0¢−0.0 pts

Open

value$15

Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Yes

entry 1¢now 1¢−0.2 pts

Open

value$11

Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?

Yes

entry 8¢ · +1171now 14¢ · +641+5.6 pts

Open

value$71

Will Ajax win the 2026-27 Eredivisie?

Yes

entry 21¢ · +372now 17¢ · +488−4.2 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball133 closed47–80-8.2%
Tennis123 closed47–70–1-1.4%
Soccer91 closed33–53-3.0%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 95 sports · 5 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-19	Combo: Los Angeles Angels — Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels + Baltimore Orioles — Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles + Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangersbaseball · combo	—	lost	13¢ · +677	$140	−140
2026-09-19	Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-09-19?soccer · moneyline	Yes	lost	67¢ · -202	$882	—
2026-09-19	AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior · Spread AFC Ajax (-1.5)soccer · spreads	AFC Ajax	lost	37¢ · +170	$103	−103
2026-09-19