Public evidence record

JN7-236

0xc5dbdeb9d7b057e9bcc0fa874940ea5cd529b42d

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-1.5%2,825 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$154,088 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.59%475 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1966-292-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−40.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,825 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -2.7% to -0.3%

2,825 closed positions · 5,220 taker fills · $154,088 deployed

Typical position $42 (median) · closing line value measured over 475 pre-event fills · 24% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$99

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Yes

entry 92¢ · -1148now 92¢ · -1076−0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports875 closed570–132-3.2%
Baseball518 closed373–40–1-2.8%
Basketball501 closed338–47-1.8%
Tennis455 closed318–35–1-1.5%
Soccer217 closed154–23-4.1%
Hockey196 closed161–9-1.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 96 sports · 4 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	KBO Playoff: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lionsbaseball · moneyline	Samsung Lions	won	97¢ · -3233	$30	+1
2026-11-06	Heat vs. Warriorsbasketball · moneyline	Warriors	won	84¢ · -525	$35	+6
2026-11-06	Spread: Magic (-4.5)basketball · spreads	Suns	won	91¢ · -1011	$30	+3
2026-11-06	Blues vs. Devilshockey · moneyline