Public evidence record

0xccfc…d636

0xccfcb94c4ba75e60be739a41b8cbaa3e40d3d636

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.8%287 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.9%$93,059 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.29%116 pre-event fills

Settlement record

268-19Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−2.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 287 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -6.4% to -1.3%

287 closed positions · 581 taker fills · $93,059 deployed

Typical position $97 (median) · closing line value measured over 116 pre-event fills · 23% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

17 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$195

Will Edward Kargbo win Mr. Olympia 2026?

No

entry 100¢now 97¢ · -2930−2.9 pts

Open

value$117

Will Quinton Eriya win Mr. Olympia 2026?

No

entry 99¢now 97¢ · -2757−2.9 pts

Open

value$91

Will Shaun Clarida win Mr. Olympia 2026?

No

entry 92¢ · -1100now 96¢ · -2122+3.8 pts

Open

value$50

Will Patrick Moore win Mr. Olympia 2026?

No

entry 99¢ · -9801now 88¢ · -700−11.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports72 closed68–4-4.8%
Soccer66 closed65–1-4.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 55 sports · 45 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ETNon-sports	Down	won	100¢ · -99899	$75	+0
2026-09-23	Will Italy win on 2026-09-23?soccer · moneyline	No	won	100¢ · -97687	$1,279	—
2026-09-23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ETNon-sports	Down	won	90¢ · -900	$5	+1
2026-09-23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET