Public evidence record

Arnus

0xce5fd046d90c8f0bde86654560e607eb6600d782

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.6%211 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-4.2%$119,682 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.04%79 pre-event fills

Settlement record

64-126-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−34.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 211 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -17.5% to +6.3%

211 closed positions · 313 taker fills · $119,682 deployed

Typical position $310 (median) · closing line value measured over 79 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$1337

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes

entry 45¢ · +122now 73¢ · -264+27.5 pts

Open

value$452

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

No

entry 58¢ · -138now 84¢ · -506+25.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis169 closed55–96–2-3.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 94 sports · 6 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-05	Combo: Yes — Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? + Yes — Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? + Yes — Will RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw? + Yes — Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05?soccer · combo	—	lost	0¢ · +20018	$5	−5
2026-11-05	Combo: Yes — Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score + Yes — AZ vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score + Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) + Yes — Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will AC Milan win on 2026-11-05? + Yes — Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-05?soccer · combo	—	lost	1¢ · +13081	$50	−50
2026-11-05