Public evidence record

0xd0ad…b23e

0xd0ade10dbfd80cfd48c0e876b640796ae67bb23e

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-5.6%2,890 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.2%$248,214 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.14%2,549 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1449-1145-20Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−93.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,890 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.6% to -2.7%

2,890 closed positions · 5,580 taker fills · $248,214 deployed

Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 2,549 pre-event fills · 11% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$329

Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

No

entry 24¢ · +314now 26¢ · +292+1.3 pts

Open

value$27

Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

Yes

entry 25¢ · +308now 27¢ · +277+2.0 pts

Open

value$577

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

No

entry 12¢ · +714now 19¢ · +426+6.7 pts

Open

value$399

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Yes

entry 12¢ · +736now 19¢ · +435+6.7 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball1,356 closed660–612-5.4%
Esports967 closed502–341–6-8.2%
Basketball290 closed145–93-3.0%
Soccer153 closed80–62–1-4.6%
Tennis103 closed51–28–13-1.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-08-10	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline	Gen.G	exited	54¢ · -117	$55	+45
2026-08-10	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifieresports · moneyline	Gen.G	lost	61¢ · -159	$438	−438
2026-08-10	Game Handicap · Games Total: O/U 2.5esports · totals	Over	exited	50¢ · -100	$26	−11
2026-08-09	LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonesports · moneyline	G2 Esports	won