Public evidence record

Stefnc

0xd515ae3ecf67973b4958072b3994803001cc2c54

Not ranked. median stake under $25 (typical position $18.03). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.7%969 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.0%$36,085 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.99%530 pre-event fills

Settlement record

640-226-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−14.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 969 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.2% to -1.2%

969 closed positions · 2,952 taker fills · $36,085 deployed

Typical position $18 (median) · closing line value measured over 530 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

8 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$13

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes

entry 6¢ · +1539now 3¢ · +3674−3.5 pts

Open

value$115

Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 67¢ · -206now 25¢ · +300−42.3 pts

Open

value$76

Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

No

entry 84¢ · -518now 80¢ · -400−3.8 pts

Open

value$82

Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?

No

entry 87¢ · -674now 89¢ · -809+1.9 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis388 closed281–95–3-5.5%
Baseball275 closed249–26-1.7%
Basketball213 closed64–59-2.6%
Soccer83 closed42–41-11.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Darya Astakhova vs Magda Linettetennis · moneyline	Magda Linette	lost	86¢ · -614	$20	−20
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Yue Yuan vs Da-Yeon Backtennis · moneyline	Yue Yuan	lost	76¢ · -317	$20	−20
2026-09-21	Korea Open: Lanlana Tararudee vs Moyuka Uchijimatennis · moneyline	Lanlana Tararudee	won	85¢ · -567	$20	+3
2026-09-20	Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-20?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	91¢ · -1044