Public evidence record

Stefnc

0xd515ae3ecf67973b4958072b3994803001cc2c54

Not ranked. median stake under $25 (typical position $20.24). Available on-chain history is shown below; unresolved positions are excluded from these figures.

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.4%1,248 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$44,172 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.58%847 pre-event fills

Settlement record

820-320-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−19.8uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,248 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.8% to -1.1%

1,248 closed positions · 3,374 taker fills · $44,172 deployed

Typical position $20 (median) · closing line value measured over 847 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

14 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$20

Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?

Yes

entry 25¢ · +300now 25¢ · +308−0.5 pts

Open

value$20

Will Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?

Yes

entry 28¢ · +257now 28¢ · +264−0.5 pts

Open

value$80

Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by November 30, 2026?

No

entry 96¢ · -2394now 76¢ · -323−19.6 pts

Open

value$85

Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Yes

entry 67¢ · -206now 19¢ · +441−48.8 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis573 closed398–161–4-5.4%
Baseball305 closed270–33-2.4%
Basketball228 closed74–64-3.0%
Soccer132 closed74–57-7.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Taranto: Maxim Mrva vs Matteo Martineautennis · moneyline	Matteo Martineau	won	72¢ · -257	$20	+7
2026-11-06	Taipei: Coleman Wong vs Kasidit Samrejtennis · moneyline	Coleman Wong	won	89¢ · -847	$20	+2
2026-11-05	Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Elena Pridankina vs Alexandra Shubladzetennis · moneyline	Elena Pridankina	lost	66¢ · -194	$20	−20
2026-11-04	Bratislava 2: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Mika Brunold