Public evidence record

LukaArauj

0xd577d7d6c4cabcd7164d97ad45879be393d1c012

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 24, 2026

Source sync: Sep 23, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.5%724 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.5%$28,993 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.50%675 pre-event fills

Settlement record

346-338-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−56.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 724 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -12.4% to -0.5%

724 closed positions · 1,123 taker fills · $28,993 deployed

Typical position $49 (median) · closing line value measured over 675 pre-event fills · 24% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$41

Spread: Turkmenistan (-4.5)

China PR

entry 55¢ · -122now 39¢ · +160−16.5 pts

Open

value$1

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

entry 57¢ · -131now 57¢ · -133+0.3 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer244 closed130–102-0.3%
Esports160 closed85–70–1-9.1%
Baseball153 closed67–83-6.8%
Basketball73 closed26–38-8.5%
Tennis59 closed26–32-9.3%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-22	Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stageesports · moneyline	GamerLegion	won	60¢ · -150	$60	+38
2026-09-22	Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	Conventus Stellarum	won	70¢ · -233	$59	+24
2026-09-22	Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winneresports · child moneyline	Conventus Stellarum	won	68¢ · -213	$60	+27
2026-09-21	Real Cundinamarca vs. Deportes Quindio · Spread Real Cundinamarca (-1.5)soccer · spreads	Deportes Quindio