Public evidence record

negar

0xd5a643204bbf5bc36438565ea52fde8d9b4c6991

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-11.8%1,136 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.1%$250,120 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-2.55%134 pre-event fills

Settlement record

335-601-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−98.4uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,136 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.9% to -6.8%

1,136 closed positions · 2,202 taker fills · $250,120 deployed

Typical position $83 (median) · closing line value measured over 134 pre-event fills · 9% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

2 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$231

Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?

Yes

entry 8¢ · +1184now 6¢ · +1450−1.3 pts

Open

value$97

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?

Yes

entry 4¢ · +2242now 4¢ · +2310−0.1 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball524 closed163–278-12.2%
Basketball250 closed56–145-9.3%
Tennis137 closed45–63-3.2%
Hockey98 closed33–43-6.1%
Football78 closed29–36–4-7.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 2 sports · 98 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 21?Non-sports	Yes	won	8¢ · +1186	$98	+464
2026-09-21	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?Non-sports	Yes	won	8¢ · +1126	$409	+1,871
2026-09-20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 20?Non-sports	Yes	lost	3¢ · +2841	$107	−107
2026-09-19	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 19?