Public evidence record

keatle

0xd5c31674b99ccd38c64c259b4a76ad82359613e5

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.9%1,321 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.9%$139,521 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.81%423 pre-event fills

Settlement record

701-571-4Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−54.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,321 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -7.4% to +1.6%

1,321 closed positions · 2,080 taker fills · $139,521 deployed

Typical position $25 (median) · closing line value measured over 423 pre-event fills · 4% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

4 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$46

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Ningbo, China?

Yes

entry 30¢ · +237now 27¢ · +270−2.7 pts

Open

value$105

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 12¢ · +719now 2¢ · +5305−10.4 pts

Open

value$79

Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?

Messi

entry 25¢ · +302now 25¢ · +308−0.4 pts

Open

value$32

Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes

entry 16¢ · +525now 14¢ · +641−2.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports640 closed342–274–2-4.2%
Soccer264 closed131–123-5.4%
Tennis188 closed105–75–2-2.4%
Baseball130 closed69–59-4.0%
Basketball66 closed36–27-3.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paultennis · moneyline	Ben Shelton	won	90¢ · -900	$1,306	+138
2026-11-06	Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paultennis · moneyline	Tommy Paul	lost	43¢ · +133	$103	−83
2026-11-06	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffsesports · moneyline	FURIA	lost	48¢ · +109	$82	−82
2026-11-06	Set Handicap: Alexandra Eala (-1.5) vs Antonia Ruzic (+1.5)tennis · tennis set handicap	Alexandra Eala	won