Public evidence record

hldlaoren

0xdb4e9f019da8be3b2f9337caea6fb5066b8c05f7

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 15, 2026

Source sync: Oct 14, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-6.0%243 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-9.2%$14,163 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.47%36 pre-event fills

Settlement record

84-127Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−48.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 243 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.5% to +4.5%

243 closed positions · 319 taker fills · $14,163 deployed

Typical position $50 (median) · closing line value measured over 36 pre-event fills · 25% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$9

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Yes

entry 46¢ · +117now 42¢ · +138−4.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports171 closed60–87-1.9%
Soccer52 closed20–28-10.8%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 97 sports · 3 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-14	Combo: Team Falcons — Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A + Aurora Gaming — Counter-Strike: 9z vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A + Lynn Vision — Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffsesports · combo	—	lost	52¢ · -107	$50	−50
2026-10-14	Combo: Team Falcons — Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A + Legacy — Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B + Aurora Gaming — Counter-Strike: 9z vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A + FURIA — Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group Besports · combo	—	lost	23¢ · +343	$20	−20
2026-10-14	Combo: Team Falcons — Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NIP (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A + Legacy — Counter-Strike: Legacy vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B + Aurora Gaming — Counter-Strike: 9z vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A