Public evidence record

Fgmfactor

0xdb7ce566ad88318a358bcee5d7f324f129cb8eab

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 6, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-10.1%703 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.3%$160,954 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.91%486 pre-event fills

Settlement record

294-390-5Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−57.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 703 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -16.9% to -3.3%

703 closed positions · 845 taker fills · $160,954 deployed

Typical position $203 (median) · closing line value measured over 486 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

3 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$391

Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5

Over

entry 53¢ · -113now 39¢ · +160−14.5 pts

Open

value$388

Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5

Over

entry 51¢ · -104now 50¢ · +102−1.5 pts

Open

value$297

Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)

Bears

entry 54¢ · -117now 54¢ · -115−0.5 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Football262 closed120–136–3-6.7%
Hockey147 closed70–75-3.3%
Basketball108 closed41–64-8.6%
Baseball89 closed33–51-8.4%
Soccer65 closed18–47-14.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Ducks vs. Oilershockey · moneyline	Oilers	lost	39¢ · +156	$155	−155
2026-11-05	Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)hockey · spreads	Canadiens	lost	17¢ · +488	$24	−24
2026-11-05	Utah vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5hockey · totals	Over	won	64¢ · -178	$305	+164
2026-11-05	Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5football · totals	Over	won	48¢ · +108	$305	+320