Public evidence record

Marcoli

0xdbbbde184ab04018ce0373c0dbe4e5fd6be805a8

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.4%149 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-3.8%$2,435,648 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.95%75 pre-event fills

Settlement record

108-39Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−8.0uDeepest peak-to-trough over 149 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.7% to +3.8%

149 closed positions · 313 taker fills · $2,435,648 deployed

Typical position $10,442 (median) · closing line value measured over 75 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$94886

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

Yes

entry 52¢ · -109now 79¢ · -365+26.4 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis145 closed104–39-3.5%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.