Public evidence record

ztao

0xdc5bd11896bfb0fb335dad88d99a7e9a6bc3f102

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.5%5,994 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.0%$1,849,183 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.20%5,404 pre-event fills

Settlement record

3584-2210-9Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−168.1uDeepest peak-to-trough over 5,994 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -4.5% to -0.5%

5,994 closed positions · 8,987 taker fills · $1,849,183 deployed

Typical position $28 (median) · closing line value measured over 5,404 pre-event fills · 12% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$542

Texas State vs. Boise State

Boise State

entry 92¢ · -1130now 100¢+7.6 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports2,001 closed1245–642–4-5.4%
Baseball1,467 closed805–635-1.1%
Basketball1,312 closed844–427-2.0%
Hockey807 closed443–356-1.4%
MMA204 closed112–82–5-3.1%
Football118 closed75–43-2.3%
Soccer71 closed51–20-3.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-07	Wizards vs. Hawksbasketball · moneyline	Hawks	won	86¢ · -614	$806	+125
2026-11-07	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 4 Winneresports · child moneyline	T1	won	71¢ · -245	$30,895	+8,917
2026-11-07	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 3 Winneresports · child moneyline	T1	lost	72¢ · -255	$11,818	−3,889
2026-11-07	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)esports · map handicap	T1	won	92¢ · -1150