Public evidence record

ztao

0xdc5bd11896bfb0fb335dad88d99a7e9a6bc3f102

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-2.1%5,556 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.1%$969,539 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.13%4,537 pre-event fills

Settlement record

3288-2121-9Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−187.2uDeepest peak-to-trough over 5,556 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -4.2% to -0.0%

5,556 closed positions · 7,910 taker fills · $969,539 deployed

Typical position $28 (median) · closing line value measured over 4,537 pre-event fills · 6% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports1,717 closed1057–583–4-5.1%
Baseball1,451 closed793–634-1.0%
Basketball1,188 closed756–404-1.9%
Hockey805 closed441–356-1.2%
MMA196 closed110–76–5-1.9%
Football116 closed73–43-2.3%
Soccer69 closed49–20-3.9%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	Vitality	lost	71¢ · -250	$497	−497
2026-09-20	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffsesports · moneyline	Vitality	won	88¢ · -733	$101	+13
2026-09-20	LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffsesports · moneyline	G2 Esports	won	84¢ · -525	$806	+146
2026-09-20