Public evidence record

thiagopd

0xe99f12b3c3b098eba79f4f59ae652ef3548fe595

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedOct 7, 2026

Source sync: Oct 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.8%264 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-5.2%$62,808 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.21%136 pre-event fills

Settlement record

162-68-1Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−20.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 264 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -9.5% to +1.9%

264 closed positions · 653 taker fills · $62,808 deployed

Typical position $103 (median) · closing line value measured over 136 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$62

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin

Roman Safiullin

entry 86¢ · -614now 100¢+14.0 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Tennis147 closed96–38–1-4.4%
Soccer57 closed35–10-4.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 99 sports · 1 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-10-07	Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	88¢ · -755	$47	—
2026-10-07	Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-10-06?soccer · moneyline	No	won	88¢ · -730	$42	—
2026-10-06	Combo: Yes — Will England win on 2026-10-06? + Yes — Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?soccer · combo	—	exited	71¢ · -240	$30	+12
2026-10-06	China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur