Public evidence record

nelron

0xeac63bd6161f7521f99cf23ef00c1f8996624ac7

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-4.5%102 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-1.9%$44,037 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

Insufficient sample12 pre-event fills

Settlement record

80-13Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−2.3uDeepest peak-to-trough over 102 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -8.6% to -0.4%

102 closed positions · 208 taker fills · $44,037 deployed

Typical position $400 (median) · closing line value measured over 12 pre-event fills · 1% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball74 closed60–9-4.6%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 80 sports · 20 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-04	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	99¢ · -6883	$701	—
2026-11-04	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	95¢ · -1900	$601	—
2026-11-03	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?soccer · moneyline	Yes	won	90¢ · -900	$301	—
2026-10-20	Celtics vs. Pistonsbasketball · moneyline